UFC · resolved market
Luciano vs. Oliveira
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc18817888c4e8d56986f8b5b869a182750ca0c72ea85d6171ff428ceba614ca7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lucianoof Luciano, Oliveira
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,611
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Oliveira | 30c | 10,014$3,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,004.28 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Luciano | 70c | 8,380$5,866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,514.06 | 209 | 54.1%113 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Oliveira | 27c | 3,706$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.54 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Luciano | 74c | 3,504$2,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.11 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Oliveira | 26c | 3,070$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.19 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Luciano | 73c | 2,496$1,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.86 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Oliveira | 26c | 2,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Luciano | 73c | 2,000$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Luciano | 70c | 1,184$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.48 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Oliveira | 27c | 1,089$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.91 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a85fbacked Luciano | 74c | 803.23$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.84 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf0…153ebacked Oliveira | 26c | 751.38$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.36 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Oliveira | 4c | 698.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 223 | 34.1%76 W · 147 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Oliveira | 25c | 695.57$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.98 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed Luciano | 74c | 675.68$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.68 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Oliveira | 18c | 593.15$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.25 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Luciano | 72c | 584.48$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Luciano | 74c | 574.32$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.32 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Luciano | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…341bbacked Luciano | 73c | 413.13$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.13 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…6598backed Oliveira | 31c | 383.68$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.16 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea0…41aebacked Oliveira | 30c | 374.08$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d52…834ebacked Oliveira | 26c | 366.77$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.36 | 92 | 28.3%26 W · 66 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Luciano | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x731c…a252backed Oliveira | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b1…e87fbacked Luciano | 71c | 283.17$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.83 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…c82fbacked Luciano | 77c | 260.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.67 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…ea39backed Oliveira | 30c | 151.72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 324 | 31.8%103 W · 221 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Oliveira | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Luciano | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 166 | 55.4%92 W · 74 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Luciano | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee4…80f2backed Luciano | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Luciano | 74c | 125.33$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Oliveira | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 124 | 46.8%58 W · 66 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Luciano | 71c | 113.79$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Oliveira | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…e845backed Luciano | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…aa71backed Oliveira | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…3608backed Oliveira | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Oliveira | 28c | 84.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 192 | 30.7%59 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9999…9868backed Luciano | 60c | 83.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef6…8c16backed Oliveira | 31c | 65.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Luciano | 67c | 60.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…2589backed Oliveira | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14c8…ce8bbacked Luciano | 76c | 52.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Luciano | 70c | 39.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…4323backed Luciano | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x566a…881abacked Luciano | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38eb…a211backed Luciano | 74c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed Luciano | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Luciano | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 58 | 67.2%39 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ca…4870backed Luciano | 74c | 14.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Luciano vs. Oliveirathis page
- Allen vs. de RidderAllen won
- Barlow vs. SantosSantos won
- Bekoev vs. BelgarouiBelgaroui won
- Dober vs. PrepolecDober won
- Fiorot vs. JasudaviciusFiorot won
- Frevola vs. NelsonNelson won
- Grant vs. JourdainJourdain won
- Lisboa vs. CrodenCroden won
- Malott vs. HollandMalott won
- Silva vs. ParkSilva won
- Vera vs. ZahabiZahabi won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.