TailMyPicks
Market

UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Chidi Njokuani vs. Carlos Leal (Welterweight, Prelims)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lealof Njokuani, Leal
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$363,542
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$420,989

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $363,542 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 292 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x68dd…f0b2backed Njokuani43c80,000$34,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,600.045440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Leal56c38,000$21,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,719.9922259.5%132 W · 90 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6211…b89ebacked Leal57c36,213$20,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,571.67683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick61cpaid+44.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Njokuani44c27,238$11,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,912.3619544.6%87 W · 108 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7966…6f94backed Leal57c14,207$8,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,129.267238.9%28 W · 44 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Leal57c14,082$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,082.088360.2%50 W · 33 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Njokuani19c13,731$2,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,585.1215939.6%63 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Njokuani43c13,074$5,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,578.0528849.7%143 W · 145 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Njokuani32c11,902$3,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,816.8829151.9%151 W · 140 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Leal56c11,348$6,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,993.1911554.8%63 W · 52 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Leal56c10,725$6,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,719.136346%29 W · 34 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4762…ba70backed Njokuani44c9,284$4,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,084.964946.9%23 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d10…e270backed Njokuani44c9,000$3,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,9602532%8 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Leal55c8,669$4,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,901.096850%34 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3a…eb9abacked Njokuani45c8,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,6003756.8%21 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+18.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Njokuani44c7,699$3,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,409.737528%21 W · 54 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Leal56c7,500$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,299.976738.8%26 W · 41 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Njokuani38c5,703$2,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,182.872240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-24.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x718c…50eabacked Leal57c4,922$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,121.682356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+35.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf81…80cebacked Leal58c4,763$2,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,000.371163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+34%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Leal56c4,337$2,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,908.1714558.6%85 W · 60 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Leal59c4,199$2,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,727.545459.3%32 W · 22 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Leal57c3,860$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,659.658058.8%47 W · 33 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Leal56c3,761$2,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,65542254.3%229 W · 193 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Njokuani44c3,409$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5006937.7%26 W · 43 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-28.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Njokuani44c3,265$1,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,436.599636.5%35 W · 61 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x33dd…ef8abacked Njokuani43c3,000$1,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,289.993735.1%13 W · 24 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-26.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x44fd…b634backed Leal54c2,777$1,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,277.283964.1%25 W · 14 L+5.1wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+28.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8cdc…b83fbacked Njokuani44c2,775$1,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,221714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.31per pick45cpaid-74.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Leal56c2,641$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,170.832445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Leal56c2,626$1,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,162.5819154.5%104 W · 87 L+14.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Leal56c2,575$1,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,144.7135253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Njokuani45c2,548$1,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,135.925349.1%26 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Njokuani16c2,543$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.421247.2%100 W · 112 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Njokuani14c2,424$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.7336048.3%174 W · 186 L+16.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40f…a5b1backed Njokuani43c2,336$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.594425%11 W · 33 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-36.6%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Njokuani46c2,303$1,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,059.387862.8%49 W · 29 L+7.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+17%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3c5b…0584backed Njokuani44c2,273$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Leal57c2,222$1,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955.46944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Njokuani33c1,800$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.3137854.8%207 W · 171 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xedea…8b39backed Njokuani8c1,777$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1504042.5%17 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Njokuani44c1,731$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.666250%31 W · 31 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa800…bd7abacked Leal60c1,666$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.54944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Leal70c1,377$967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.868434.5%29 W · 55 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbddc…83b9backed Njokuani44c1,359$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6003141.9%13 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-21.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf338…38e2backed Leal74c1,357$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.95100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f4d…6055backed Njokuani45c1,144$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.762536%9 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-35.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Leal55c1,134$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.284228.6%12 W · 30 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x26cf…c612backed Leal54c1,046$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.1290553.6%485 W · 420 L+46.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Leal57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4308650%43 W · 43 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d52…834ebacked Njokuani43c962.49$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.879228.3%26 W · 66 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1fb7…fb66backed Njokuani26c903$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.71154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e3…1080backed Leal68c880$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.65736.8%21 W · 36 L-6.7wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-32.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed Njokuani43c874.42$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3767244.4%32 W · 40 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x725d…e49abacked Njokuani23c789.36$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1801369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+38%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Leal57c700$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3012040%8 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-34.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x71f6…e115backed Njokuani43c697.67$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3007437.8%28 W · 46 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Njokuani38c654.47$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.791233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb31b…d703backed Leal75c640.58$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.436063.3%38 W · 22 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Njokuani33c631$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.575841.4%24 W · 34 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Njokuani22c617.65$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.1422438.4%86 W · 138 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe497…f147backed Njokuani46c610$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.61241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick57cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1abf…6024backed Leal57c600$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2582673.1%19 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Leal58c586.21$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.2129948.8%146 W · 153 L-9.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Njokuani44c549.99$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.536755.3%203 W · 164 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Njokuani43c519.4$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.345655.4%31 W · 25 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Njokuani45c509$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.0518038.9%70 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb75e…5130backed Leal60c503$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.17955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed10…d2e5backed Njokuani44c500$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22022661.9%140 W · 86 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1fd…abf9backed Njokuani43c500$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d7f…a878backed Leal57c500$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21510041%41 W · 59 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Njokuani47c478.97$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.3151533.6%173 W · 342 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed Njokuani25c478.79$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.76240.3%25 W · 37 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Njokuani43c470$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.7721044.8%94 W · 116 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa995…3d50backed Njokuani32c468.75$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1508856.8%50 W · 38 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Njokuani44c454$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.7615552.3%81 W · 74 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f2f…b226backed Njokuani44c450$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1982259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7056…a5d3backed Leal56c446.43$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.43425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-55.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d80…ba3dbacked Leal71c440$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.63246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Njokuani23c403$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.125541.8%23 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed Leal58c400$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1682646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa42…2ff3backed Njokuani8c400$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-63.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Njokuani44c393.88$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.9114643.8%64 W · 82 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1d9…5896backed Njokuani14c370.07$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5014237.3%53 W · 89 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x208c…b132backed Njokuani43c360.09$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.84520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-63.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Njokuani16c357.14$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1413453%71 W · 63 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7a9…be15backed Njokuani42c352.77$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.19250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44e5…3c33backed Njokuani40c352.33$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.51060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+18.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0ad…683fbacked Leal57c352.3$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.4910961.5%67 W · 42 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1375…4c69backed Njokuani44c340.91$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1507040%28 W · 42 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf333…038cbacked Njokuani44c327.27$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1454463.6%28 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Njokuani45c313.18$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14015556.8%88 W · 67 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6149…8a58backed Njokuani30c299.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907339.7%29 W · 44 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x676b…5bc3backed Njokuani44c297.73$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1313959%23 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Leal71c292.87$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.3715540.6%63 W · 92 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked Njokuani44c289.98$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.5918644.1%82 W · 104 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3f8…503abacked Leal55c270$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.59459.6%56 W · 38 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Njokuani45c267.44$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.3554056.7%306 W · 234 L-1.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51e6…80d2backed Njokuani44c250$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11013940.3%56 W · 83 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Njokuani15c241.82$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.957251.4%37 W · 35 L+7.0wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.