UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4b06cf27300fc753ea1dab312a266593dd0cab9b65b838b550e78374d7db932
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Under | 47c | 1,003$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.43 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked Over | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 52c | 734.9$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.15 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 48c | 706$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.12 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520e…d75abacked Over | 47c | 681.57$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.7 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x91ad…a5cabacked Over | 54c | 592.59$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.59 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 50c | 483.76$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.1 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf334…bdefbacked Under | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd81…5f13backed Over | 46c | 253$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.62 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 51cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 53c | 249$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.97 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 146 | 49.3%72 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ad…9e5fbacked Under | 51c | 196.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…8132backed Over | 8c | 171.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.23 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f0…bf7dbacked Under | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -7.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Under | 51c | 53.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 53c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1136…705ebacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Under | 30c | 44.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x269a…190ebacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…8b6dbacked Under | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe1…a6ebbacked Over | 46c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x874d…c888backed Under | 54c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x219f…7420backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c0…dac7backed Under | 54c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…4123backed Over | 46c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…89a4backed Under | 53c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e74…68c1backed Over | 47c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4255…6dd5backed Under | 54c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd83…c0c2backed Over | 46c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- UFC Fight Night: Chidi Njokuani vs. Carlos Leal (Welterweight, Prelims)Leal won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.