UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb17779362ec4b9fdb5e94027a5c6a830897a98dbb85f757b29c5b0c9f509e53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Steve Ercegof Tim Elliott, Steve Erceg
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $468,430
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $565,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $468,430 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 394 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a3a…eb9abacked Tim Elliott | 37c | 87,029$32,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,236.19 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Steve Erceg | 63c | 59,970$37,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,217.62 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Tim Elliott | 30c | 56,014$16,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,910.83 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Steve Erceg | 63c | 50,000$31,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,500 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6447…8075backed Steve Erceg | 69c | 31,351$21,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,771.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…017fbacked Tim Elliott | 36c | 17,646$6,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,351.89 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Tim Elliott | 36c | 17,524$6,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,308.53 | 154 | 44.2%68 W · 86 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Tim Elliott | 36c | 17,427$6,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,273.66 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2f…2ca8backed Steve Erceg | 64c | 15,777$10,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,679.65 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Steve Erceg | 76c | 13,245$10,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,212.8 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05a7…42e6backed Steve Erceg | 64c | 12,851$8,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,626.51 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54d2…de22backed Steve Erceg | 64c | 12,564$8,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,523.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b6…2d92backed Tim Elliott | 25c | 11,476$2,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,839.2 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Steve Erceg | 75c | 9,403$7,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,350.69 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…7980backed Tim Elliott | 35c | 7,873$2,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,756.44 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Steve Erceg | 65c | 7,692$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,692.31 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Steve Erceg | 65c | 7,266$4,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,543.18 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +42%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ed…5dc7backed Steve Erceg | 69c | 7,080$4,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,170.01 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Steve Erceg | 74c | 7,000$5,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,820 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2734…6d9ebacked Steve Erceg | 64c | 6,094$3,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,193.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Tim Elliott | 35c | 5,714$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.9 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Tim Elliott | 36c | 5,590$2,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,012.39 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0c4bbacked Tim Elliott | 28c | 4,997$1,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,407.29 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf84…0b5ebacked Tim Elliott | 39c | 4,628$1,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,805 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Tim Elliott | 37c | 4,574$1,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,692.55 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Tim Elliott | 36c | 4,338$1,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,561.59 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda5f…2e9bbacked Tim Elliott | 46c | 4,257$1,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,949.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c9…396dbacked Steve Erceg | 64c | 3,750$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Steve Erceg | 67c | 3,390$2,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115.58 | 106 | 64.2%68 W · 38 L | +13.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…c120backed Steve Erceg | 61c | 3,300$2,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,286.94 | 156 | 41%64 W · 92 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Steve Erceg | 63c | 3,000$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,109.95 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa941…ec2ebacked Steve Erceg | 64c | 2,937$1,876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,061.83 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…8d9bbacked Tim Elliott | 38c | 2,632$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aab…2ca3backed Steve Erceg | 64c | 2,519$1,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Steve Erceg | 63c | 2,351$1,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.85 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Tim Elliott | 39c | 2,343$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.52 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Tim Elliott | 35c | 2,114$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.62 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2258…0eecbacked Steve Erceg | 64c | 2,031$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.25 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Steve Erceg | 71c | 2,022$1,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.6 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…1fcabacked Steve Erceg | 65c | 2,000$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed Steve Erceg | 74c | 2,000$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Steve Erceg | 63c | 2,000$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.99 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Steve Erceg | 69c | 1,993$1,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.87 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…7e11backed Tim Elliott | 35c | 1,724$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.91 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Tim Elliott | 37c | 1,616$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.9 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997d…decfbacked Steve Erceg | 64c | 1,559$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.38 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Steve Erceg | 67c | 1,473$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.93 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Tim Elliott | 28c | 1,369$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.26 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb045…d4cebacked Tim Elliott | 37c | 1,344$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Steve Erceg | 77c | 1,281$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.58 | 49 | 81.6%40 W · 9 L | +10.4wins | +0.21per pick | 60cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Tim Elliott | 30c | 1,208$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.92 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…8c6abacked Steve Erceg | 71c | 1,200$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.53 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…3bc8backed Steve Erceg | 64c | 1,172$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.88 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Steve Erceg | 65c | 1,149$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.67 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x695d…60d5backed Tim Elliott | 38c | 1,100$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…b56bbacked Steve Erceg | 74c | 1,096$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda79…daecbacked Tim Elliott | 29c | 1,058$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.53 | 184 | 40.8%75 W · 109 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…edf1backed Steve Erceg | 72c | 1,057$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.88 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12ec…41aebacked Tim Elliott | 35c | 1,050$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.57 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fb…a074backed Tim Elliott | 26c | 1,032$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +125.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed Steve Erceg | 65c | 1,001$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.44 | 226 | 61.9%140 W · 86 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ed…4a93backed Steve Erceg | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Steve Erceg | 64c | 983.9$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.87 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Tim Elliott | 36c | 971.99$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.92 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3751…7dfdbacked Steve Erceg | 75c | 971.3$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.17 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Tim Elliott | 31c | 867.89$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.27 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…729cbacked Steve Erceg | 80c | 820.38$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.9 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…427ebacked Tim Elliott | 37c | 810.81$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Steve Erceg | 64c | 800$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…a1b0backed Tim Elliott | 32c | 750$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ce…bf90backed Steve Erceg | 63c | 749.97$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.49 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f4…2b15backed Steve Erceg | 69c | 725.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.54 | 161 | 56.5%91 W · 70 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6561…e3c2backed Steve Erceg | 64c | 718.75$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.75 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2709…9e3bbacked Steve Erceg | 74c | 677.43$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.72 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b86…dd8fbacked Steve Erceg | 64c | 623.21$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Steve Erceg | 64c | 618.29$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.29 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Steve Erceg | 63c | 600$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Tim Elliott | 34c | 581.93$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b4…f97ebacked Steve Erceg | 73c | 550.43$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.43 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +192.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Steve Erceg | 64c | 515.63$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.63 | 102 | 70.6%72 W · 30 L | +10.5wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x146a…36fabacked Steve Erceg | 63c | 505.12$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.6 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Steve Erceg | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -39%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Tim Elliott | 35c | 499.97$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.99 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cee…0d1ebacked Steve Erceg | 63c | 478.83$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.83 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfed8…9dd0backed Tim Elliott | 12c | 478.77$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Steve Erceg | 69c | 471$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.22 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…c2a7backed Steve Erceg | 64c | 468.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.75 | 140 | 45.7%64 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed99…2677backed Steve Erceg | 64c | 460.94$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.94 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3462…de48backed Steve Erceg | 63c | 459.26$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.93 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd578…a365backed Tim Elliott | 34c | 454.42$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.96 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f6…da6bbacked Steve Erceg | 64c | 450$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff9d…af7cbacked Steve Erceg | 67c | 450$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.5 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3358…fc36backed Steve Erceg | 64c | 446.83$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.83 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 46cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b71…80ecbacked Steve Erceg | 68c | 441.18$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.18 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked Tim Elliott | 32c | 427$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.59 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Tim Elliott | 36c | 416.67$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe167…03a1backed Steve Erceg | 68c | 413.07$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.36 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3565…0b17backed Steve Erceg | 65c | 399.73$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.73 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Steve Erceg | 68c | 395.96$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.36 | 159 | 33.3%53 W · 106 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8c…f75abacked Steve Erceg | 64c | 390.63$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.63 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card)this page
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.