UFC · resolved market
Pennington vs. Peña
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c77972e5a9768d27cb9e4b98244d0bbe9545ef4d29f9789548412ef643d2f05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Peñaof Pennington, Peña
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,933
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,933 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0aaa…77b7backed Peña | 39c | 10,022$3,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,088.24 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed Pennington | 6c | 4,600$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.21 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed Pennington | 1c | 4,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdf…6c07backed Pennington | 60c | 3,613$2,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,159.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Pennington | 61c | 3,227$1,969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,968.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…101cbacked Pennington | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Peña | 42c | 1,689$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.78 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Pennington | 60c | 1,667$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Peña | 40c | 1,507$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.51 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Pennington | 60c | 1,500$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.11 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Pennington | 53c | 1,439$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.45 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Pennington | 60c | 1,181$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.52 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee28…ed45backed Peña | 55c | 1,169$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Pennington | 59c | 1,159$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.54 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe84…dd1bbacked Pennington | 61c | 919.71$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x021f…17fbbacked Peña | 41c | 919.51$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fac…f9a4backed Peña | 65c | 824.82$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4437…503ebacked Pennington | 80c | 635$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 65cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed Pennington | 60c | 600$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 226 | 61.9%140 W · 86 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Pennington | 63c | 571.8$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.6 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb550…2bacbacked Peña | 46c | 550$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b26…2e52backed Pennington | 62c | 478.63$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…7399backed Peña | 41c | 435.31$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.31 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01d0…9ca3backed Peña | 47c | 414.88$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.21 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb620…dd7abacked Peña | 41c | 400.51$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b6…bb1cbacked Pennington | 62c | 300$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Pennington | 57c | 279.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.49 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…3e58backed Peña | 42c | 276.19$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.19 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f5…9ffabacked Peña | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…a65ebacked Pennington | 61c | 250$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc5…a3ddbacked Peña | 39c | 220.51$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Pennington | 58c | 208.81$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.11 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Pennington | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Pennington | 59c | 199.97$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.98 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1979…2c2cbacked Pennington | 61c | 165$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf489…34d3backed Peña | 39c | 165$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Pennington | 63c | 158.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.26 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…1d72backed Pennington | 60c | 123.56$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…db6abacked Peña | 39c | 120$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +111.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x449d…d646backed Peña | 40c | 115$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9710…d7bdbacked Pennington | 60c | 115$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Pennington | 59c | 111$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.49 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88e6…1fabbacked Pennington | 62c | 101$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f77…7f19backed Peña | 39c | 101$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb46…9ea9backed Peña | 39c | 101$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8156…fc40backed Pennington | 60c | 101$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Peña | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Pennington | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Pennington | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…0109backed Peña | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Peña | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9b…1770backed Pennington | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb945…bf3abacked Pennington | 60c | 92.37$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x538a…bd78backed Peña | 42c | 68.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d1…149cbacked Peña | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +130.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Pennington | 58c | 52.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Pennington | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Pennington | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Pennington | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ab…60c2backed Peña | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b1…a614backed Peña | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…3a9fbacked Peña | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb139…f511backed Pennington | 59c | 43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf631…e20fbacked Pennington | 60c | 40.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70be…a638backed Pennington | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21d2…177fbacked Peña | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Pennington | 62c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Pennington | 59c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x566a…881abacked Pennington | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc8…c2bdbacked Pennington | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a1…3581backed Peña | 42c | 29.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5781…95a2backed Peña | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d8…572cbacked Peña | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42f9…adcbbacked Peña | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…7737backed Pennington | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pennington vs. Peñathis page
- Bautista vs. AldoBautista won
- Harrison vs. VieiraHarrison won
- Holland vs. DolidzeDolidze won
- Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.Pereira won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.