TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

TikTok on App Store again before March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$112,605
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$134,836

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,605 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84c6…c8c8backed Yes37c17,622$6,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,017.72837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x752c…0848backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fff…be78backed No55c8,161$4,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,518.82650%13 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes37c5,539$2,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,503.611541.7%48 W · 67 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a09…d58dbacked No66c5,035$3,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,314.17333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-58.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No77c4,350$3,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,35720446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No70c3,003$2,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,115.5337533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No65c2,904$1,893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,893.2316943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes50c2,897$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,437.4416854.8%92 W · 76 L+22.8wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+56%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x4b6f…fcdbbacked No47c2,759$1,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,308.32540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb810…b043backed Yes34c2,426$816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,609.892100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+118.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3ce…54a5backed No75c2,334$1,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,753.591838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-37.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8452…9056backed No12c2,109$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.211258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc178…35b3backed No8c2,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1603966.7%26 W · 13 L+10.2wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+133.6%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x41ba…dfbbbacked No65c2,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67a4…7069backed Yes36c1,861$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,190.761861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+23.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3d2e…c986backed Yes41c1,502$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$890.18475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+34.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5d5…5819backed No72c1,453$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,041.3740%0 W · 4 L-2.5wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6493…eb83backed No63c1,443$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes77c1,416$1,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.0414135.5%50 W · 91 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011121.6%24 W · 87 L+11.4wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+179.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbf14…986fbacked No58c1,212$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7003020%6 W · 24 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-61.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No2c1,193$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.853859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes50c1,143$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.521634.3%74 W · 142 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a3b…3035backed Yes45c1,021$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.75135.3%18 W · 33 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-3.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc9d…4cc1backed No50c997.49$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002065%13 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes41c900$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52841238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ff4…17d1backed Yes27c878.78$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.724030%12 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3069…f8efbacked No71c762.14$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.546354%34 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No8c750$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6011120.7%23 W · 88 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+212.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed No59c700$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4148547.1%40 W · 45 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No62c660.03$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.1796319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes80c655.4$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.8123149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked No61c572.99$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.477133.8%24 W · 47 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb0d…d6f9backed Yes34c549.99$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3631145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+26.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37a4…a487backed Yes26c541.19$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.456246.8%29 W · 33 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8387…ace9backed Yes20c534.05$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.362045%9 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+23.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes10c500$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4501323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick38cpaid+6.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Yes9c498$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.184434.1%15 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x48d3…30babacked No63c480$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.27943%34 W · 45 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0590…256bbacked No64c478.94$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.572313%3 W · 20 L-3.8wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-77.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5446…18f6backed Yes31c465.24$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.529142.9%39 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5a9…1527backed No63c462.79$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes18c439.13$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.9499629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeb56…3fc0backed No70c350$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-40.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes22c348.96$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.231,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc8d5…fbe0backed Yes31c322.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.58128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-73.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba1a…32f9backed Yes32c312.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5e2…e599backed No63c300$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1896634.8%23 W · 43 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-0.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76f1…46d6backed Yes24c298$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.681330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81ed…0706backed Yes56c278.49$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No66c275$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.531840.3%128 W · 190 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No44c260.01$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.1328636.7%105 W · 181 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x519f…3616backed Yes35c228.57$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.57825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-40.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed No71c227.58$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.416530.8%20 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c23…b248backed No63c200$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1264734%16 W · 31 L-5.9wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-43.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb431…0c91backed Yes32c200$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick28cpaid-60.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e9b…6bf0backed Yes56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe199…56a2backed No57c192.51$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.21030%3 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-29.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc212…a125backed Yes27c183.78$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1352552%13 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x79ec…c5a2backed No63c180.21$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6eb…ad04backed Yes13c171.63$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+295.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c92…1322backed No71c160$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.64438.6%17 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdee…b0d0backed No65c153.79$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid+14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7caf…19d2backed Yes37c135.14$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.141643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+43.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b60…4007backed Yes37c121.62$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.623545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x092f…18acbacked No74c114.72$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.07229.1%2 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d31…9862backed Yes42c114.64$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.493941%16 W · 23 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+38%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf49…f6b8backed No70c112.75$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.6720%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6518…f798backed No79c110$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$875341.5%22 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x358e…3ffebacked Yes29c103.45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7662…7930backed Yes37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632060%12 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ef8…1d13backed No44c99.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-9.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3fe…978fbacked No73c99.87$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.016065%39 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe746…ff6abacked Yes31c96.77$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.771241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7320…5ef3backed No65c93.94$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.011250%6 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7cb…0beabacked Yes27c89.22$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+273.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1887…6914backed No64c84.42$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.05450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes36c83.33$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.3319435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf575…1602backed No74c80.94$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-52.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ee2…93fdbacked Yes48c79.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.61330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes56c78$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.6817021.2%36 W · 134 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e4d…7cd3backed Yes32c73.81$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.19633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes16c70$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.8817713%23 W · 154 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1399…38d9backed Yes38c52.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.632100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+107.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39c8…6e68backed Yes36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick27cpaid+35.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6183…3834backed No71c50$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5812.5%1 W · 7 L-4.3wins-0.53per pick66cpaid-82.9%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xa3a5…877dbacked Yes23c46.51$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.82850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x279d…1f27backed Yes46c43.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.48922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-61.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0243…396ebacked No69c40$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.630%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No74c37.65$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6756733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x33f0…31a1backed No55c36.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-64.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2d9…5653backed Yes35c35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.756645.5%30 W · 36 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+55.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb277…3bdbbacked Yes58c34.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No72c33.46$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0325241.7%105 W · 147 L-17.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb03…4bdfbacked No71c28.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205966.1%39 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick66cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7543…f11dbacked Yes58c25.86$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.86366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+26.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6d8…3024backed No80c25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-49.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x11b6…26f6backed Yes40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82cd…884bbacked Yes51c24.6$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.05333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-34.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.