Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel raid Gaza aid ship Handala by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc579644a2d8652ed351f3c0a8616e06f33c48db2fb56ebec582f9c47c6d85c1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $136,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $134,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 2c | 21,042$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.41 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x800c…e4c6backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 2c | 5,308$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.05 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 2c | 5,245$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.67 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x037e…0c63backed Yes | 14c | 4,277$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.97 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 3,737$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed Yes | 11c | 3,645$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.12 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.21 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 75c | 2,197$1,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.39 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 2c | 1,881$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0301…aa15backed Yes | 22c | 1,694$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.29 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 1c | 1,554$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | +18.4wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 17c | 1,412$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.08 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 6c | 1,197$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.83 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…6ba8backed No | 67c | 1,124$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.79 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee07…0647backed Yes | 15c | 1,028$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f72…0f9abacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 832.11$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 33c | 685.21$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.44 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +6.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…8bc8backed No | 80c | 558.92$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.78 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0d…2a33backed Yes | 22c | 548.76$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.31 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 5c | 404$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 77c | 400.4$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.48 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +8.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb45e…605fbacked No | 74c | 398.52$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.22 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf20e…33debacked No | 79c | 391.34$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.18 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 15c | 381.31$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.22 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 12c | 298.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ddb…4bb9backed No | 78c | 296.15$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c83…8a22backed Yes | 14c | 274$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +11.3wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 6c | 269$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11db…9831backed No | 79c | 261$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 76c | 250$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec73…6af3backed Yes | 28c | 245.51$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 74c | 240.31$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.72 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb80e…afe1backed Yes | 22c | 238.6$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 22c | 230$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e9…c21ebacked No | 65c | 226$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.32 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf861…681fbacked Yes | 22c | 218.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -37%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeed4…d04fbacked Yes | 25c | 201.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0f…ebdbbacked Yes | 8c | 201$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 197.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab69…2283backed Yes | 30c | 156$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 21c | 155$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 9c | 133.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa211…9d6bbacked Yes | 16c | 132.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc6…f0f8backed No | 80c | 125.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd312…d76cbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524b…3fb8backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 14c | 124.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 25c | 108$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 17c | 105.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b05…8dacbacked Yes | 35c | 92.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed No | 72c | 89.98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4a…562ebacked Yes | 26c | 86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…27ffbacked No | 79c | 84.1$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +141.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 20c | 78.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11ec…9f95backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd3…c3a1backed Yes | 27c | 53.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…3332backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 31c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd19e…9781backed No | 73c | 41.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae06…8acebacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee2…93fdbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfca2…ebcabacked No | 74c | 26.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfc…aeb4backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…ad2abacked No | 70c | 22.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed No | 78c | 22.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed No | 76c | 20.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…521cbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 72c | 16.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…4f9dbacked No | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.