Middle East · resolved market
Iran strike on Israel today?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1b6d7128a66a72fe6d0799e2179135cc903ef3b9f7cc0db6ece551fb6a66597
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $148,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $133,238
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $148,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked No | 0c | 13,789$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 2cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52c9…7f71backed No | 0c | 13,410$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 3c | 9,961$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.52 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…f19fbacked No | 1c | 9,694$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 31c | 4,599$1,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,412.84 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed No | 10c | 4,424$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.64 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbec7…6cfdbacked Yes | 56c | 4,370$2,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,930.04 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.3wins | +0.31per pick | 48cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xca5b…b1acbacked No | 0c | 3,926$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed No | 5c | 2,500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62d2…9eb7backed No | 3c | 2,500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 80c | 2,394$1,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.84 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed No | 14c | 2,168$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa78…8af1backed No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…aa81backed No | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed No | 2c | 1,948$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked No | 2c | 1,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 40c | 1,375$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.37 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed Yes | 58c | 1,303$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.72 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2835…a1aabacked No | 18c | 1,079$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…b2ffbacked No | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +6.3wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…32a7backed Yes | 62c | 842.88$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.97 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.43per pick | 37cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 60c | 744.73$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.6 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x72c4…294dbacked No | 33c | 731.7$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab7…c3eebacked No | 2c | 640.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3686…660abacked No | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa920…be41backed No | 14c | 520.54$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd948…4da5backed No | 38c | 519.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…fb51backed Yes | 57c | 438.6$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.6 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…df43backed No | 40c | 427.05$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 67c | 385.42$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.99 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…5390backed No | 58c | 346.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 79c | 334.5$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.64 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 60c | 315.42$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.61 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa699…785fbacked No | 38c | 315$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee2…93fdbacked No | 43c | 299.99$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ee…d947backed No | 43c | 282.29$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.38 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea69…26dabacked No | 9c | 279.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f07…6173backed No | 37c | 267.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed No | 8c | 249.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 29c | 226$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccc…a9f2backed Yes | 48c | 209.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -44%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…f82ebacked No | 7c | 207.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbc…e74ebacked No | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…4638backed No | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7108…7492backed No | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67cc…a2aabacked No | 20c | 173.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4141…8b6cbacked No | 58c | 171.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0e…9eb8backed Yes | 49c | 160$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccc…ad0dbacked No | 52c | 152.51$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cf…3349backed Yes | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed No | 44c | 140.01$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…d4e1backed Yes | 73c | 130.93$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18b7…d868backed No | 54c | 130.56$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ef…3e53backed No | 42c | 125.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +119.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44e…4d45backed No | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 61c | 101$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 130 | 33.1%43 W · 87 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x996b…1e9cbacked Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1444…90aebacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b6…510ebacked No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 49c | 94.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 40c | 88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…207cbacked No | 58c | 86.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67a5…b94fbacked No | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed No | 42c | 83.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +873.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…7737backed No | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0afe…a614backed No | 20c | 76.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked No | 52c | 68.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…e14ebacked No | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x950e…6dc1backed Yes | 57c | 51.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c98…eef4backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e0…482bbacked No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f1…7b16backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed No | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…fdb8backed No | 35c | 38.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked No | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c28…4afcbacked No | 55c | 34.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed No | 55c | 27.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cf…fe60backed Yes | 48c | 25.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…c629backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +188.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b6…7c80backed Yes | 42c | 24.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c85…2db4backed Yes | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 31cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82f2…27d3backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.