Middle East · resolved market
Will Israeli troops enter Beirut by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x525454526aa00d473eaa95437352f59946a2524d74b6f9469540274cbfe4129c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $127,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a43…f2f6backed Yes | 10c | 4,362$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 19c | 3,329$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.05 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa8…f84abacked Yes | 4c | 2,999$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.13 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…5390backed Yes | 8c | 2,388$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe97f…7536backed Yes | 8c | 2,177$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c54…7e8cbacked Yes | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0b…3a52backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdf…8cb7backed Yes | 16c | 1,442$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c3…3f7fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,000$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.96 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 4c | 998.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab60…b46cbacked Yes | 2c | 951.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 11c | 910$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4df…7f8ebacked Yes | 9c | 864.82$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2705…a12abacked Yes | 6c | 800$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…d3fdbacked Yes | 3c | 736.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63d4…170fbacked Yes | 3c | 734$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…0601backed Yes | 2c | 730.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -53%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4297…8a8bbacked Yes | 6c | 650$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40d…1474backed Yes | 6c | 642.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5335…0b0fbacked Yes | 12c | 600$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6809…41f9backed Yes | 6c | 589.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x717e…6498backed Yes | 10c | 555$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa3…dc66backed Yes | 13c | 539$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.07 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 6c | 505.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b8…762dbacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…9765backed Yes | 8c | 459.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce10…902bbacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 5c | 386.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 10c | 368.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…b168backed Yes | 8c | 358.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…b704backed Yes | 6c | 340.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e91…b801backed No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +5.6wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed2…d233backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd968…e712backed Yes | 8c | 277.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c9…bb9ebacked Yes | 8c | 274.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2df…7f57backed Yes | 16c | 260.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3aad…9a5abacked Yes | 6c | 249.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6264…9937backed Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…8bb4backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -67%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2769…96e3backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8870…5259backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe698…3b09backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -66%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x074a…f8a3backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0584…c3bebacked Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0111…86f0backed Yes | 16c | 184.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9339…ed6fbacked Yes | 6c | 180.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed No | 78c | 153$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 130 | 33.1%43 W · 87 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 10c | 149.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 162 | 31.5%51 W · 111 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee2…93fdbacked Yes | 14c | 149.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d4…97bbbacked Yes | 8c | 137.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60cb…a86abacked Yes | 9c | 122.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3adc…aa21backed Yes | 12c | 121.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…ee86backed Yes | 13c | 109.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -45%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…512abacked No | 79c | 105$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ed…09fcbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x996b…1e9cbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…925fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 79c | 99.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 92 | 34.8%32 W · 60 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf1…7f3cbacked No | 79c | 97.73$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93aa…21f4backed Yes | 18c | 91.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d56…7dcdbacked Yes | 14c | 78.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…0687backed Yes | 14c | 74.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…c1a8backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf108…b0efbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…eac1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.