Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b87cba72865218e48cbe7c0ebf4f878132a2014e4507693aef2a84304562679
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,324,155
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,083,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,324,155 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 733 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x791e…17ddbacked Yes | 17c | 113,411$18,716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,715.76 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…4fd9backed Yes | 6c | 75,182$4,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,691.69 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 2c | 73,236$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.51 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc822…c185backed No | 74c | 69,308$51,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,174.72 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…2ad4backed Yes | 2c | 59,580$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021.85 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 53c | 57,651$30,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,102.92 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 70c | 53,093$37,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,067.03 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…986fbacked Yes | 55c | 51,971$28,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,746.41 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7aa…d0f0backed Yes | 26c | 51,800$13,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,432.14 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…f083backed No | 76c | 51,300$39,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,193.98 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 45c | 49,637$22,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,188.42 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf34…8816backed No | 57c | 37,725$21,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,206.89 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…78c2backed Yes | 25c | 37,325$9,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,409.43 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 5c | 34,647$1,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,801.15 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 34c | 33,467$11,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,431.8 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 34c | 31,740$10,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,750 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x210a…3d7cbacked Yes | 37c | 29,875$11,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,170 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ba…eea1backed Yes | 17c | 29,247$4,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,973.31 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…acf4backed Yes | 14c | 28,922$4,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,076.19 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ee…0ababacked Yes | 10c | 28,213$2,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,851.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ac…ced9backed Yes | 15c | 26,414$4,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,065.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9561…96d3backed Yes | 19c | 26,099$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 78c | 25,910$20,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,790.57 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 37c | 21,219$7,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,834.74 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefa8…c82bbacked Yes | 17c | 21,202$3,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,502.64 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f8…2b7ebacked Yes | 1c | 21,096$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 30c | 19,719$5,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,950.24 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed No | 36c | 16,992$6,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,901.34 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 4c | 16,805$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.79 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x063d…3567backed No | 48c | 16,655$8,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,615.38 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 57c | 16,177$9,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,232.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb71a…6fc9backed No | 60c | 15,791$9,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,301.65 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…0245backed No | 79c | 15,179$11,931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,247.81 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fab…911fbacked Yes | 1c | 13,856$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 1c | 11,608$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.78 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…d203backed Yes | 2c | 9,876$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 18c | 9,583$1,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,701.05 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcded…189abacked Yes | 2c | 9,522$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.59 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 11c | 9,086$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.04 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7304…0379backed No | 75c | 8,878$6,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,205.21 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…94c6backed No | 53c | 8,335$4,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,909.44 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +203.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 30c | 8,300$2,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,526.61 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889d…2a06backed Yes | 2c | 8,291$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Yes | 3c | 8,286$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.94 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 21cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a39…5077backed No | 55c | 8,225$4,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,666.78 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x596b…3560backed Yes | 2c | 8,218$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…5827backed Yes | 67c | 8,155$5,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,500 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…6c4fbacked Yes | 62c | 7,897$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 38c | 7,427$2,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,586.99 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b7…f1efbacked Yes | 1c | 7,255$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…1a76backed Yes | 1c | 7,213$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ba…dfbbbacked No | 41c | 7,208$2,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,288.31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…9af7backed Yes | 69c | 7,000$4,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,796 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 1c | 7,000$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ee…c453backed Yes | 2c | 6,870$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ca…3501backed Yes | 71c | 6,666$4,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,732.84 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 61cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 41c | 6,182$2,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,523.13 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ff…c93bbacked Yes | 45c | 6,000$2,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,709.9 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…89cfbacked No | 69c | 5,990$4,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,872.62 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7295…e951backed Yes | 1c | 5,803$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad5d…a346backed Yes | 6c | 5,712$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No | 46c | 5,645$2,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,053.18 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ed…8e91backed Yes | 73c | 5,632$4,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,107.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 43c | 5,430$2,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,347.72 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked No | 47c | 5,318$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,818.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8341…de89backed No | 35c | 5,017$1,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,259.11 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x772a…c9f3backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…ee86backed Yes | 9c | 4,995$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.52 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef9…afacbacked No | 43c | 4,781$2,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,704.31 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x579e…eda1backed Yes | 23c | 4,412$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.77 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b10…4abcbacked Yes | 23c | 4,377$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc79d…0203backed Yes | 25c | 4,347$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 30cpaid | +159.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 53c | 4,261$2,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,245.14 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed No | 43c | 4,065$1,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,300.1 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes | 58c | 4,000$2,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,330.92 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc212…a125backed Yes | 58c | 4,000$2,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,319.98 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 25c | 3,994$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.07 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 61c | 3,990$2,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,421.68 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2131…cf3cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,804$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…3f05backed Yes | 2c | 3,545$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f6…42e5backed Yes | 74c | 3,421$2,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,541.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 65c | 3,368$2,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,165.29 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…2e0bbacked Yes | 60c | 3,346$1,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,997.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6495…2884backed Yes | 46c | 3,344$1,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,534.85 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad95…8e7fbacked Yes | 46c | 3,268$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…0ba7backed Yes | 37c | 3,224$1,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,192.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…ea2bbacked Yes | 4c | 3,169$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…7286backed Yes | 67c | 3,161$2,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,122 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 40c | 3,124$1,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,247.98 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 8c | 3,085$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.19 | 98 | 10.2%10 W · 88 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bd…1b8abacked Yes | 16c | 3,085$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 20c | 3,036$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.55 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…e8bcbacked Yes | 3c | 3,021$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbc…bb1abacked Yes | 1c | 3,010$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…b22abacked Yes | 6c | 3,000$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…07aabacked No | 41c | 2,920$1,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,725.23 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 44c | 2,863$1,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,262.31 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab72…a119backed Yes | 24c | 2,751$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.84 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe835…7273backed Yes | 37c | 2,699$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe2…87c5backed Yes | 11c | 2,672$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.11 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1?this page
- Will Trump issue 10-14 executive orders on Day 1?No won
- Will Trump issue 15-19 executive orders on Day 1?No won
- Will Trump issue 20-24 executive orders on Day 1?No won
- Will Trump issue 25-29 executive orders on Day 1?Yes won
- Will Trump issue 30-34 executive orders on Day 1?No won
- Will Trump issue 35-39 executive orders on Day 1?No won
- Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.