TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump issue 30-34 executive orders on Day 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$200,960
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$133,640

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $200,960 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes1c20,119$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.171936.8%7 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+203.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes7c15,821$1,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,058.553859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7aa…d0f0backed Yes1c10,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703228.1%9 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ba…eea1backed Yes6c7,907$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4801723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-63.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x386d…9bb6backed Yes6c3,878$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.69329.4%3 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-65.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf14…986fbacked Yes29c3,602$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0603020%6 W · 24 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-61.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0fe9…4fd9backed Yes1c3,585$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.53420.6%7 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-64.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes21c3,126$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.67458.1%43 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8f8…2b7ebacked Yes1c2,987$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7295…e951backed Yes1c2,979$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes9c2,659$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.510324.3%25 W · 78 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-34.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed Yes3c2,544$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.283135.5%11 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x82a0…33a1backed Yes3c2,525$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.757420.3%15 W · 59 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-54.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8bd…1b8abacked Yes20c2,500$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes4c2,385$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.582119%4 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-58.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf6d…ba36backed Yes2c2,353$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes1c2,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1215238.8%59 W · 93 L-13.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xab72…a119backed Yes1c2,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick32cpaid-83.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes4c1,881$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.161435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+85.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes12c1,754$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.9211848.3%57 W · 61 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+41.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes6c1,547$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.264314%6 W · 37 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc0…d9adbacked Yes1c1,516$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes4c1,387$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0196319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c36…12b1backed Yes27c1,361$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.21616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-73%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4158…9631backed Yes23c1,353$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.14520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes15c1,333$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20015243.4%66 W · 86 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3ac…ced9backed Yes25c1,310$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.1130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x270a…7b78backed Yes6c1,249$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.373023.3%7 W · 23 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x686a…966bbacked Yes6c1,200$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.953450%17 W · 17 L+7.5wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+123.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x772a…c9f3backed Yes2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20140%0 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe367…f235backed Yes6c1,000$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.62133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6994…7112backed Yes5c1,000$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524156.1%23 W · 18 L+7.0wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+66.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes11c999.99$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1118134.6%28 W · 53 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes6c900$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5018033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes2c879.26$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0312630.2%38 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes23c846.15$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.032429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-40.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2139…4b34backed Yes3c800$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208632.6%28 W · 58 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick25cpaid-13.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe077…8ee3backed Yes6c794.49$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.527014.3%10 W · 60 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a65…acf4backed Yes5c784.47$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403050%15 W · 15 L+5.2wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+31.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xff22…4b18backed Yes66c724.15$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.04540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7179…e8bcbacked Yes5c723.89$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.62520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-59.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2bae…2e92backed Yes5c721.3$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.219846.9%46 W · 52 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+32.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes1c721$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4718914.3%27 W · 162 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7881…4568backed Yes4c720$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.71266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes7c666$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.966033.3%20 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe837…739fbacked Yes30c660.07$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.641216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-77.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f0d…da48backed Yes4c578.41$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.652339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+56.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ba2…95cebacked Yes18c568.18$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fec…017ebacked Yes5c566.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301921.1%4 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb73…a4bebacked Yes8c476$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.472814.3%4 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-53.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87e1…5998backed No77c474.25$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.45944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-30.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11a1…7afebacked Yes10c445.03$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.344522.2%10 W · 35 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-63.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x63c6…43a5backed Yes19c438$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.77265.3%47 W · 25 L+8.0wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+20%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6b20…68bdbacked Yes5c422.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202119%4 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick18cpaid+45.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes31c416.35$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.992941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-36.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcab3…4288backed Yes6c398.77$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+146.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1714…0986backed Yes5c379.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201030%3 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea85…0c0cbacked Yes5c379.08$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-66.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes4c354$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5617021.2%36 W · 134 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9091…bba5backed Yes3c346.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.54633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fd7…eb50backed Yes26c332.59$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.492347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e9c…0669backed Yes20c325$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.281637.5%6 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7737…e497backed Yes6c310.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204240.5%17 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes21c294.71$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5830319.1%58 W · 245 L-20.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7951…a345backed Yes8c253.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c99…c1c0backed Yes16c246.87$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefa8…c82bbacked Yes20c244.97$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.742737%10 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes10c220.1$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221520%3 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-57.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad4f…12a3backed Yes7c209.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152119%4 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick32cpaid+15.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4470…e93bbacked Yes31c203.76$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.12147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick23cpaid-36%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148921.3%19 W · 70 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2dc…b2a9backed Yes7c185.83$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+166.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32c1…e1e3backed Yes28c163.17$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+62.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes25c156.52$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.777646.1%35 W · 41 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2b7…9875backed Yes21c142.23$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-56.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes20c140$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7611347.8%54 W · 59 L+10.8wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+18.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes25c134$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3815155%83 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a7c…f1a6backed Yes8c125.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103324.2%8 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0db2…048abacked Yes20c122.08$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0530%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67a9…c417backed Yes10c111$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.776625.8%17 W · 49 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeda9…82d2backed Yes12c105.61$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.92185.6%1 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.17per pick23cpaid-87.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdf70…cfb7backed Yes24c104.48$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251050%5 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+19.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5b6…94d7backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8640%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05b7…d34bbacked Yes21c93.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4225…8476backed Yes23c92.11$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick23cpaid+6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes20c90$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9114048.6%68 W · 72 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55c6…c338backed Yes33c89.5$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-64.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2141…d23dbacked Yes22c64.6$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No70c55.78$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9614241.5%59 W · 83 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.