Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump issue 35-39 executive orders on Day 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa846734c7c36a8b6b74dc5dedd42e521f06d19b4893c79876e7bde0763cdce48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $202,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $202,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8f8…2b7ebacked Yes | 0c | 27,323$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 4c | 21,288$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.68 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes | 1c | 9,359$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.19 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +203.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…4fd9backed Yes | 1c | 7,901$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 1c | 7,020$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.66 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ba…eea1backed Yes | 6c | 6,131$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6d…ba36backed Yes | 1c | 5,211$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc0…d9adbacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 5c | 3,545$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.29 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 9c | 2,238$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.08 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes | 4c | 2,043$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.91 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 4c | 1,893$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.11 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x791e…17ddbacked Yes | 2c | 1,730$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 3c | 1,584$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.91 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…9631backed Yes | 10c | 1,451$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 3c | 1,440$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 7c | 1,250$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.37 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…017ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,248$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x686a…966bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,200$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.67 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +7.5wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +123.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 2c | 1,149$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,076$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,052$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…e8bcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,013$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x772a…c9f3backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd087…b390backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…f235backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.13 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…7112backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c36…12b1backed Yes | 10c | 926.96$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…acf4backed Yes | 5c | 872.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…986fbacked Yes | 7c | 863.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03a5…9d0ebacked Yes | 5c | 863.66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8659…9178backed Yes | 7c | 786.51$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.17 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba2…95cebacked Yes | 13c | 766.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 753$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…1472backed Yes | 4c | 727$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -72%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked Yes | 14c | 700$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.7 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 14c | 699.61$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefa8…c82bbacked Yes | 13c | 660$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.48 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2911…98a7backed Yes | 5c | 628.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Yes | 7c | 603.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x579e…eda1backed Yes | 6c | 600$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab0…5a7ebacked Yes | 2c | 596$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34f…46c1backed Yes | 4c | 579.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0d…da48backed Yes | 6c | 573.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 6c | 546.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 9c | 545.39$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04be…2dc7backed Yes | 4c | 516.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d6…0c6fbacked Yes | 5c | 493.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd7…eb50backed Yes | 11c | 468$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.26 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b20…68bdbacked Yes | 10c | 456.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7737…e497backed Yes | 5c | 433.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6a…4601backed Yes | 4c | 415.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcab3…4288backed Yes | 6c | 406.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +146.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Yes | 6c | 400.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 6c | 370.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 6c | 361.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 6c | 325.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Yes | 5c | 305.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…82d2backed Yes | 8c | 285$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a34…47e9backed Yes | 7c | 278.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.31per pick | 46cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd840…c8b3backed Yes | 11c | 250$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c91…c5f9backed Yes | 5c | 240.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7da7…ba93backed Yes | 10c | 240$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e65…a223backed Yes | 6c | 236.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad4f…12a3backed Yes | 7c | 200.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…0669backed Yes | 7c | 174$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…d34bbacked Yes | 12c | 169.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 15c | 165.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…227dbacked Yes | 8c | 129.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump issue 35-39 executive orders on Day 1?this page
- Will Trump issue 10-14 executive orders on Day 1?No won
- Will Trump issue 15-19 executive orders on Day 1?No won
- Will Trump issue 20-24 executive orders on Day 1?No won
- Will Trump issue 25-29 executive orders on Day 1?Yes won
- Will Trump issue 30-34 executive orders on Day 1?No won
- Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1?No won
- Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.