Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump issue 25-29 executive orders on Day 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b394949cea4f505bbef44a6078f6cd4475b811ccdcdfd9007ec644b4a4a23e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $707,489
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $725,436
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $707,489 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 157 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3ac…ced9backed No | 0c | 59,746$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…2ad4backed No | 1c | 51,157$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.09 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked No | 1c | 32,600$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.79 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 21cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 41c | 30,564$12,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,634.01 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ee…0ababacked No | 41c | 19,300$8,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,000 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…3d87backed Yes | 62c | 16,989$10,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,477.99 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7aa…d0f0backed No | 2c | 15,000$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.7 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb98a…fe29backed No | 0c | 13,541$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 64c | 12,865$8,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,663.56 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1756…3c96backed No | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 30c | 9,925$2,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,928.07 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf34…8816backed Yes | 29c | 8,809$2,569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,239.75 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked No | 0c | 8,500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7295…e951backed No | 0c | 8,152$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a69…a466backed No | 25c | 6,936$1,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,728.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd0…eb9dbacked No | 1c | 6,735$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 26c | 6,305$1,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,670.48 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…9209backed No | 5c | 6,062$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…986fbacked No | 6c | 5,908$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.85 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09c8…e78bbacked No | 1c | 5,135$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed No | 1c | 5,000$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…f083backed Yes | 49c | 5,000$2,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,574.16 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…07aabacked Yes | 60c | 4,939$2,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,989.52 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 5c | 4,897$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.12 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe2…87c5backed No | 51c | 4,748$2,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,437.76 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x063d…3567backed Yes | 69c | 4,677$3,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,445.87 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed No | 3c | 4,259$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.87 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Yes | 36c | 4,231$1,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700.1 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c36…12b1backed Yes | 62c | 3,972$2,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,523.63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa8…c82bbacked No | 15c | 3,800$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 15c | 3,659$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,127.89 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed No | 1c | 3,229$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 22c | 2,702$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,110.5 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 53c | 2,671$1,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,255.73 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 15c | 2,359$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.04 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 18c | 2,337$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.89 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 11c | 2,169$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,937.65 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes | 6c | 2,151$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,015.22 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +203.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed No | 9c | 2,142$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.45 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a39…5077backed Yes | 50c | 2,132$1,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,074.37 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04fb…7bd1backed No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 1c | 1,995$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…4fd9backed No | 8c | 1,916$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.44 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 65c | 1,886$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.71 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed No | 8c | 1,817$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.76 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…0245backed No | 1c | 1,700$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff22…4b18backed Yes | 65c | 1,595$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes | 5c | 1,577$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,491.89 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…7112backed Yes | 6c | 1,518$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,430.54 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…7745backed No | 7c | 1,426$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 34c | 1,415$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.16 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…acfdbacked No | 59c | 1,307$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150.2 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x686a…966bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,097.88 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +7.5wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +123.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 37c | 1,077$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.84 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc0…d9adbacked No | 2c | 1,027$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,001$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.57 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…6c95backed No | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked No | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…f235backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed No | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x210a…3d7cbacked Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4470…e93bbacked Yes | 11c | 991.17$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.49 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 23cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb45d…a406backed No | 6c | 990.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -29%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed No | 64c | 861.28$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.83 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 8c | 851.17$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.4 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 71c | 797.3$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.32 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…5a9bbacked No | 8c | 782.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 5c | 755.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.04 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c4…bbc5backed No | 60c | 747.68$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.83 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcab3…4288backed Yes | 4c | 699.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.31 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +146.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 28c | 650.52$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.07 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed Yes | 80c | 650.01$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.48 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0d…c7bebacked Yes | 15c | 646.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.18 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 64c | 624.22$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.82 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4661…c08cbacked No | 44c | 615.96$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ff…10f4backed No | 32c | 608.51$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Yes | 7c | 600$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed No | 6c | 600$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 77c | 581.36$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.41 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b20…68bdbacked Yes | 7c | 572.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.54 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 35c | 558$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.7 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…9631backed Yes | 20c | 502.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f0…3213backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 6c | 498$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.35 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…f1b3backed No | 2c | 497.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb71a…6fc9backed No | 8c | 484.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 59c | 424.96$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.08 | 148 | 43.2%64 W · 84 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…decdbacked No | 46c | 412.48$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.04 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42dd…48b7backed No | 4c | 400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe15a…b662backed No | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0d…da48backed Yes | 5c | 353.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.3 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Yes | 4c | 345.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.73 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd8e…8bd7backed No | 5c | 336.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd087…b390backed Yes | 14c | 334.85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.63 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed No | 8c | 332.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -56%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x003d…7a58backed No | 58c | 322.94$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed No | 30c | 308.65$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump issue 25-29 executive orders on Day 1?this page
- Will Trump issue 10-14 executive orders on Day 1?No won
- Will Trump issue 15-19 executive orders on Day 1?No won
- Will Trump issue 20-24 executive orders on Day 1?No won
- Will Trump issue 30-34 executive orders on Day 1?No won
- Will Trump issue 35-39 executive orders on Day 1?No won
- Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1?No won
- Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.