Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump issue 15-19 executive orders on Day 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x075ec16258858acf699c5d9211c90bc9d290b1753d37e0b3b4faeddaf8d08195
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $194,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $160,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $194,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes | 0c | 43,659$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.59 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +203.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 2c | 39,760$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.21 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 15c | 11,000$1,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,610 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 6c | 7,867$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.55 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab72…a119backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 18c | 5,807$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.5 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a39…5077backed Yes | 11c | 5,043$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.85 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…4173backed Yes | 21c | 4,905$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.1 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 73c | 3,649$2,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.97 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b2d…d158backed Yes | 6c | 2,094$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 19c | 2,000$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.74 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf34…8816backed Yes | 9c | 1,964$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.91 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,864$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.48 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…7112backed Yes | 6c | 1,581$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.85 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4470…e93bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,452$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.45 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 23cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 4c | 1,296$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.27 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 18c | 1,250$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.22 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x686a…966bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,200$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.2 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +7.5wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +123.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…f235backed Yes | 20c | 1,004$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.71 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…614dbacked Yes | 7c | 999.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes | 6c | 899.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…dd3bbacked Yes | 12c | 850.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes | 15c | 808.12$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.67 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb73…a4bebacked Yes | 4c | 804.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 6c | 779.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 9c | 704.59$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.45 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed No | 80c | 658.06$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.91 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked Yes | 11c | 650$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.3 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 556.47$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edb…4b51backed Yes | 20c | 498.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Yes | 10c | 496.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0d…da48backed Yes | 8c | 459$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7737…e497backed Yes | 11c | 446.82$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 13c | 395.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 3c | 392.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f0…3213backed Yes | 19c | 368.42$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 6c | 367.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcab3…4288backed Yes | 12c | 305.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +146.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 76c | 305$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 17c | 279$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed25…d6c4backed Yes | 10c | 248.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | +170.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…017ebacked Yes | 13c | 229.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac92…67efbacked Yes | 12c | 204.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -68%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…1d10backed Yes | 5c | 193.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 16cpaid | +278.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…986fbacked Yes | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed Yes | 27c | 192$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.03 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a5…4366backed Yes | 9c | 189.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dc…b2a9backed Yes | 16c | 184.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +166.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…82d2backed Yes | 14c | 180.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 19c | 180.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…cfb7backed Yes | 18c | 164.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 14c | 152.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3acb…2efcbacked Yes | 11c | 136.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed Yes | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4225…8476backed Yes | 16c | 108.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x834d…c896backed Yes | 14c | 104.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7c…f1a6backed Yes | 20c | 102$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7836…6bc4backed Yes | 15c | 101.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +127.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc8…0260backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c2…6851backed Yes | 20c | 89.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8232…0ad1backed No | 80c | 75.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2374…4f85backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -62%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed Yes | 21c | 64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 26cpaid | -76%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc85…6062backed No | 79c | 27.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 80c | 22.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3585…1595backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…2f3bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +109.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump issue 15-19 executive orders on Day 1?this page
- Will Trump issue 10-14 executive orders on Day 1?No won
- Will Trump issue 20-24 executive orders on Day 1?No won
- Will Trump issue 25-29 executive orders on Day 1?Yes won
- Will Trump issue 30-34 executive orders on Day 1?No won
- Will Trump issue 35-39 executive orders on Day 1?No won
- Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1?No won
- Will Trump issue less than 10 executive orders on Day 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.