TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,088,147
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,406,853

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,088,147 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,651 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x790c…0a8dbacked No54c186,209$100,937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85,271.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3167…679ebacked Yes3c126,465$4,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,039.16450%2 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+245.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x287e…72ccbacked Yes9c92,673$8,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,134.1750%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed No71c91,325$64,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,643.14126.8%11 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-37.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No56c89,521$50,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,166.9520549.8%102 W · 103 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7bd9…bd75backed Yes8c88,155$6,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,904.49333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick21cpaid-37.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7504…9c69backed No46c77,660$35,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,246.721450%7 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8be2…8b8abacked Yes19c77,618$14,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,998.582313%3 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed No60c57,276$34,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,195.024650%23 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked No60c54,553$32,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,692.094045%18 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes1c54,426$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.924418.2%8 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-56.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe07a…6adbbacked Yes56c53,442$30,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,0001118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.26per pick44cpaid-52.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xce41…fa02backed No76c52,955$40,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,603.411172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+71.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf8d6…0062backed Yes18c49,849$9,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,100333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-57.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ffd…d7c4backed Yes5c49,837$2,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,521.640%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8ec…01e6backed Yes5c47,710$2,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,202.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a24…71e8backed Yes17c43,601$7,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,373.652157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d65…16d4backed Yes52c42,852$22,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,493.78520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-67.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x203b…acd1backed Yes2c42,688$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.6911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-49.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc68c…f959backed Yes51c38,820$19,808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,807.5320%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1af…d889backed Yes18c37,364$6,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,558.84387.9%3 W · 35 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-66%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ff8…3961backed Yes3c36,404$1,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,167.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05ab…8145backed Yes29c35,774$10,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,348.138045%36 W · 44 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-3.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e7f…b1d4backed No51c34,683$17,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,828.231241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5ee…0ababacked Yes44c33,100$14,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,700.082548%12 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+32.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfcc0…4353backed No60c33,012$19,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,303.331241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-13.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe587…0b6bbacked Yes7c32,628$2,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,338.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac92…9d64backed No51c31,300$15,823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,476.841643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes33c31,029$10,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,389.551020%2 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-64%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda29…a628backed Yes1c30,968$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb66…3103backed Yes44c30,000$13,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,292.5840%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e02…817ebacked No59c29,913$17,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,317.761050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea7…79acbacked No44c29,902$13,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,5973345.5%15 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid+28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f2…7851backed No72c29,630$21,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,435.373647.2%17 W · 19 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+80.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c28,894$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.77504%2 W · 48 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-81%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8da…f944backed No78c27,890$21,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,213.11850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xacf6…7376backed No61c27,754$16,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,805.252100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+88.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x799a…90b4backed Yes18c27,551$5,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,059.6330%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ca…377ebacked Yes40c27,372$10,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,972.23250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc060…8956backed Yes55c27,190$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,000757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x66aa…9290backed Yes24c26,992$6,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,414425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-35.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed Yes18c26,763$4,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,892.189637.5%36 W · 60 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-20.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes36c26,014$9,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,314.7912634.9%44 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2a0d…565dbacked Yes27c25,613$6,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,898.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes31c25,575$8,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,026.7989617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x40fd…f684backed Yes1c25,344$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac86…e59cbacked Yes39c25,173$9,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,777.89728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-42%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x51c9…e4a8backed Yes39c24,802$9,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,615.8850%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes7c23,248$1,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,672.849711.3%11 W · 86 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes6c22,308$1,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,315.9849023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00b7…cfa0backed Yes25c22,001$5,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,412.212128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad95…0724backed Yes7c21,898$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed No77c21,672$16,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,086.131741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick34cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2524…31b8backed Yes43c21,548$9,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,214.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.42per pick59cpaid-78.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf031…89b5backed Yes13c21,528$2,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,762.521421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick15cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a4c…532bbacked No68c21,366$14,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,941.581926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-51%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdef…82acbacked Yes28c21,246$6,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,017.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes6c20,997$1,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,288.8842120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cb3…9902backed Yes3c20,940$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffee…5d13backed No57c20,404$11,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,831.66250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x909f…9af9backed Yes36c20,251$7,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,195.31911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick40cpaid-80.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf4f5…f1c1backed Yes38c20,162$7,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,661.75633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-56.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c37…0631backed Yes51c19,609$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,000837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-32.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No71c19,532$13,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,612.276134.4%21 W · 40 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-42%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa8ae…d3c7backed Yes12c18,065$2,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,158.7770%0 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x57ad…04a8backed Yes16c17,951$2,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,940.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5510…2083backed Yes24c17,888$4,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,374.651421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed No65c17,870$11,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,333.241752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46f9…11a3backed Yes4c17,764$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01f7…ba71backed Yes1c17,717$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.8420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1da…0894backed Yes9c17,481$1,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,541.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1b0…071cbacked Yes35c17,238$6,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,074.22213.6%3 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-76.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Yes32c17,027$5,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,482.611127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-64.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked No75c16,792$12,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,237.142250%11 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7248…8cb4backed Yes24c16,712$4,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,051.872528%7 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2663…ed1fbacked Yes4c16,541$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.912222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-63.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes14c16,415$2,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,265.9920823.1%48 W · 160 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8468…10c2backed Yes14c16,262$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,350520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x155c…1b09backed Yes24c15,502$3,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,759.541233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+19.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…e414backed No77c15,502$11,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,637.951553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x277b…31fabacked Yes40c15,354$6,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,155.872321.7%5 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked No53c15,273$8,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,240.147142.3%30 W · 41 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6367…e938backed Yes2c15,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3503116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-56.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes1c15,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90190%0 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x59c4…efaabacked Yes29c14,757$4,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,269.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes3c14,468$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.72964.2%4 W · 92 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5a7…89cbbacked No59c14,203$8,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,764.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes23c14,169$3,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,259.179642.7%41 W · 55 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34a9…9e88backed No51c14,000$7,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,839.972642.3%11 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-26%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b21…deb6backed No53c13,915$7,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,598.853655.6%20 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes29c13,655$4,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,001.3943212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1908…e5f7backed Yes3c13,610$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.44911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-85.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x535d…795ebacked Yes52c13,494$6,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,965.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0417…ddecbacked Yes19c13,321$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5001921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-59.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed Yes20c13,229$2,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,702.81747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-32.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3db1…46a4backed Yes24c13,224$3,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,170.092634.6%9 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No66c13,098$8,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,417.78749.4%43 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed No55c13,074$7,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,923.88728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+18.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x129b…b0debacked Yes5c13,008$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.4960%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c13,002$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.512078.2%17 W · 190 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-88.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.