Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f4d9792bdf45a5fa5f717cbe55d78107878854816374b2dd741f46062aba2b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,088,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,406,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,088,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,651 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x790c…0a8dbacked No | 54c | 186,209$100,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85,271.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3167…679ebacked Yes | 3c | 126,465$4,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,039.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +245.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x287e…72ccbacked Yes | 9c | 92,673$8,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,134.17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 71c | 91,325$64,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,643.1 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 56c | 89,521$50,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,166.95 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd9…bd75backed Yes | 8c | 88,155$6,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,904.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7504…9c69backed No | 46c | 77,660$35,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,246.72 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…8b8abacked Yes | 19c | 77,618$14,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,998.58 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed No | 60c | 57,276$34,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,195.02 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 60c | 54,553$32,861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,692.09 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 1c | 54,426$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.92 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe07a…6adbbacked Yes | 56c | 53,442$30,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,000 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 44cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce41…fa02backed No | 76c | 52,955$40,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,603.41 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d6…0062backed Yes | 18c | 49,849$9,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffd…d7c4backed Yes | 5c | 49,837$2,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,521.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ec…01e6backed Yes | 5c | 47,710$2,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,202.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed Yes | 17c | 43,601$7,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,373.65 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d65…16d4backed Yes | 52c | 42,852$22,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,493.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…acd1backed Yes | 2c | 42,688$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.6 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc68c…f959backed Yes | 51c | 38,820$19,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,807.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…d889backed Yes | 18c | 37,364$6,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,558.84 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff8…3961backed Yes | 3c | 36,404$1,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 29c | 35,774$10,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,348.13 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…b1d4backed No | 51c | 34,683$17,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,828.23 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ee…0ababacked Yes | 44c | 33,100$14,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,700.08 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc0…4353backed No | 60c | 33,012$19,708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,303.33 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe587…0b6bbacked Yes | 7c | 32,628$2,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,338.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac92…9d64backed No | 51c | 31,300$15,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,476.84 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 33c | 31,029$10,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,389.55 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -64%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda29…a628backed Yes | 1c | 30,968$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb66…3103backed Yes | 44c | 30,000$13,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,292.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e02…817ebacked No | 59c | 29,913$17,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,317.76 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea7…79acbacked No | 44c | 29,902$13,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,597 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7851backed No | 72c | 29,630$21,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,435.37 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 28,894$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.77 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -81%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8da…f944backed No | 78c | 27,890$21,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,213.11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…7376backed No | 61c | 27,754$16,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,805.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x799a…90b4backed Yes | 18c | 27,551$5,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,059.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ca…377ebacked Yes | 40c | 27,372$10,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,972.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc060…8956backed Yes | 55c | 27,190$15,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,000 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…9290backed Yes | 24c | 26,992$6,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,414 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed Yes | 18c | 26,763$4,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,892.18 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 36c | 26,014$9,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,314.79 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0d…565dbacked Yes | 27c | 25,613$6,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,898.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 31c | 25,575$8,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,026.79 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…f684backed Yes | 1c | 25,344$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac86…e59cbacked Yes | 39c | 25,173$9,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,777.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -42%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51c9…e4a8backed Yes | 39c | 24,802$9,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,615.88 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 7c | 23,248$1,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,672.84 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 6c | 22,308$1,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,315.98 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…cfa0backed Yes | 25c | 22,001$5,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,412.21 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad95…0724backed Yes | 7c | 21,898$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed No | 77c | 21,672$16,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,086.13 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2524…31b8backed Yes | 43c | 21,548$9,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,214.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 59cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 13c | 21,528$2,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,762.52 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked No | 68c | 21,366$14,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,941.58 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdef…82acbacked Yes | 28c | 21,246$6,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,017.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 20,997$1,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,288.88 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb3…9902backed Yes | 3c | 20,940$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffee…5d13backed No | 57c | 20,404$11,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,831.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x909f…9af9backed Yes | 36c | 20,251$7,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,195.31 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 40cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f5…f1c1backed Yes | 38c | 20,162$7,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,661.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c37…0631backed Yes | 51c | 19,609$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 71c | 19,532$13,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,612.27 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…d3c7backed Yes | 12c | 18,065$2,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,158.77 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ad…04a8backed Yes | 16c | 17,951$2,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,940.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5510…2083backed Yes | 24c | 17,888$4,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,374.65 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed No | 65c | 17,870$11,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,333.24 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f9…11a3backed Yes | 4c | 17,764$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01f7…ba71backed Yes | 1c | 17,717$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1da…0894backed Yes | 9c | 17,481$1,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,541.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b0…071cbacked Yes | 35c | 17,238$6,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,074.2 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 32c | 17,027$5,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,482.61 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked No | 75c | 16,792$12,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,237.14 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…8cb4backed Yes | 24c | 16,712$4,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,051.87 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2663…ed1fbacked Yes | 4c | 16,541$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.91 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 14c | 16,415$2,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,265.99 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8468…10c2backed Yes | 14c | 16,262$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155c…1b09backed Yes | 24c | 15,502$3,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,759.54 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…e414backed No | 77c | 15,502$11,864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,637.95 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x277b…31fabacked Yes | 40c | 15,354$6,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,155.87 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 53c | 15,273$8,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,240.14 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 2c | 15,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes | 1c | 15,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59c4…efaabacked Yes | 29c | 14,757$4,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,269.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 14,468$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.72 | 96 | 4.2%4 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a7…89cbbacked No | 59c | 14,203$8,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,764.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 23c | 14,169$3,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,259.17 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed No | 51c | 14,000$7,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,839.97 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b21…deb6backed No | 53c | 13,915$7,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,598.85 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 29c | 13,655$4,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,001.39 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1908…e5f7backed Yes | 3c | 13,610$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.44 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x535d…795ebacked Yes | 52c | 13,494$6,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,965.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…ddecbacked Yes | 19c | 13,321$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed Yes | 20c | 13,229$2,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,702.8 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3db1…46a4backed Yes | 24c | 13,224$3,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,170.09 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 66c | 13,098$8,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,417.7 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed No | 55c | 13,074$7,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,923.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…b0debacked Yes | 5c | 13,008$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.49 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 13,002$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.51 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.