NFL · resolved market
Will a rookie QB win during wildcard weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d6b8546a5deda3ebe76cb6eeb9273c9cf0458aa77573ea8ec946d262c1868d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,548
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53d2…0c3fbacked Yes | 50c | 1,162$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.78 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe81…5fe9backed No | 50c | 1,090$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.9 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 50c | 584.42$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.6 | 143 | 42%60 W · 83 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c0…8742backed No | 50c | 499.22$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes | 52c | 412.62$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.08 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 51c | 394$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.26 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…79a4backed No | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…1628backed No | 50c | 150.2$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed No | 45c | 110$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 50c | 101.89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…330abacked Yes | 52c | 90.39$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1e…7aa6backed No | 51c | 90.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…e6c9backed No | 50c | 79.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906b…fd3cbacked Yes | 49c | 41.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf386…1158backed Yes | 55c | 36.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…da06backed No | 57c | 27.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b0…f6fabacked Yes | 62c | 24.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x844b…0a51backed Yes | 52c | 19.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70fa…196dbacked Yes | 59c | 17.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.