TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Dan Bongino leave the Trump administration in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$282,742
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$257,534

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $282,742 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 289 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde04…fa37backed Yes20c19,426$3,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,600.46368.3%3 W · 33 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-78.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed No2c13,596$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.363043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfce4…db20backed No0c13,519$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd632…7e17backed No1c9,003$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.651154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.23per pick31cpaid+64.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5cc7…af9dbacked No0c8,837$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes12c7,032$824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,208.4433313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e38…a1dbbacked No77c7,007$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,4002055%11 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes23c6,159$1,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,721.6213029.2%38 W · 92 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No1c5,026$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3116535.8%59 W · 106 L+18.3wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+86.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed No0c4,301$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.348750.6%44 W · 43 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+8.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No10c4,227$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.127441.9%31 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No17c4,079$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.9519638.8%76 W · 120 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b6d…58f6backed Yes25c3,992$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,994.01250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+100%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0562…594fbacked No76c3,480$2,637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,637.24666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+37.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes17c3,350$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,771.468921.3%19 W · 70 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed No13c3,128$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.278250%41 W · 41 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes17c3,031$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,513.223315.2%5 W · 28 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-64%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes32c2,283$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,553.058231.7%26 W · 56 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa591…9079backed No69c2,137$1,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,477.32748.1%13 W · 14 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick62cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x90a0…7e0abacked No37c2,000$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.615164.7%33 W · 18 L+8.4wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+29.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x59ae…6264backed Yes4c2,000$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,920333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick4cpaid+733.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes65c1,754$1,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.994946.9%23 W · 26 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb2a…5ccebacked No2c1,745$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.950%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fa3…16e5backed Yes21c1,609$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,269.31742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc20c…e2bdbacked Yes25c1,500$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,126.931154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.26per pick29cpaid+77.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x615c…e9c3backed Yes6c1,436$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,357.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.95per pick6cpaid+1,718.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No65c1,429$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922.54047.5%19 W · 21 L-4.3wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-28.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb704…dc1ebacked No1c1,401$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed No44c1,363$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.777146.5%33 W · 38 L+9.9wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+84.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed No75c1,330$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.693658.3%21 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed No2c1,330$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.63315.2%5 W · 28 L-7.2wins-0.22per pick37cpaid-67.4%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x97e8…be6cbacked Yes38c1,301$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.69366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+45.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5e2…e599backed Yes34c1,300$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8556634.8%23 W · 43 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-0.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes45c1,285$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.658036.3%29 W · 51 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c77…5aafbacked Yes22c1,248$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$972.69450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+182.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a0e…0ba6backed No76c1,160$882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$882.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26df…f747backed No64c1,089$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.662969%20 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d7f…a878backed No40c1,060$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.591030%3 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes37c1,056$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.984717%8 W · 39 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-60.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed No66c1,053$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.2815238.8%59 W · 93 L-13.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0826…bcbcbacked Yes78c1,034$811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed No70c1,034$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.812152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes27c1,003$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734.5218746.5%87 W · 100 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No14c1,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1404436.4%16 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed No75c1,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7504833.3%16 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes5c994.36$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945.52828.5%7 W · 75 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked No71c981.24$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.254951%25 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No4c831.72$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5721634.3%74 W · 142 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ef…5289backed No65c807.5$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.54673.9%34 W · 12 L+6.6wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+27.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x909a…93eabacked No78c729.18$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.97560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+41.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52d5…3ba6backed No67c721.14$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.91911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-84.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37ef…a37abacked Yes56c713.12$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.33043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+21.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedc0…99f3backed Yes37c669.33$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.332931%9 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-30.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca52…0cdfbacked No75c655.29$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.352055%11 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe781…5e52backed No78c641.99$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.753548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x58ac…d9e3backed Yes6c609.27$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.87911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick5cpaid+81%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc1…5fa3backed Yes5c570.87$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.74825%2 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+227.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b12…c3c1backed Yes4c555$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.471100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.96per pick4cpaid+2,602.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes21c550.72$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.0696319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed No76c546.22$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.645250%26 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes34c526.34$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.8637533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x96e9…4b32backed No67c525$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.32759.3%16 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes47c524.24$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.0299629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked Yes35c517.38$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.925844.8%26 W · 32 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+37.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes16c500.29$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.761,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa60e…d332backed Yes60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2001258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick43cpaid+36.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x88b6…3cffbacked No62c500$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.965265.4%34 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Yes28c500$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35912649.2%62 W · 64 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+4.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes25c500$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37539522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed No9c500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458737.9%33 W · 54 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes21c500$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.54850%24 W · 24 L+9.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+346.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xe870…6bf8backed No21c477.61$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.31145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes22c476.03$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.6241238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No73c474.35$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.556733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6e8f…162cbacked No22c452.97$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.653164.5%20 W · 11 L+5.0wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No17c450$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3631840.3%128 W · 190 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x932b…64c0backed Yes49c446.48$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.512832.1%9 W · 19 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+130.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4eb8…9231backed No73c433.23$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.287639.5%30 W · 46 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed No40c429.99$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.365635.7%20 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-23.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc14…2e9bbacked Yes26c407.35$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.931931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-28%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x681b…bf35backed Yes25c403.32$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.33955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+34.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked No73c400$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29310056%56 W · 44 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes17c400$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33232626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No10c400$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.219435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01ac…a00fbacked Yes30c400$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x22cc…ef97backed Yes33c398$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.597129.6%21 W · 50 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+52.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c87…9bd4backed No47c377.8$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.524353.5%23 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked No77c372.28$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.72119%4 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No21c352.99$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.9116144.7%72 W · 89 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes30c352.8$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.48042.5%34 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No76c351.59$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.4320446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked No69c346.17$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.0511031.8%35 W · 75 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0095…ba5bbacked Yes32c338.93$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+56%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd94…b271backed Yes60c333.33$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.332161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+16.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf83d…4fc7backed Yes27c331.37$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.31850%4 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+57.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c62…70bbbacked Yes4c320$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.521100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.96per pick4cpaid+2,464.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e31…0f90backed Yes38c312.5$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ffe…e125backed No52c310$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.123964.1%25 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf149…8219backed Yes48c309.38$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes40c303.58$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.94957.1%28 W · 21 L+8.3wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+47.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.