Us Politics · resolved market
Will Dan Bongino leave the Trump administration in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e4883bc524ed82e5ab677336b57669cedb8c29f368e548bbf615c664429060a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $282,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $257,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $282,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 289 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 20c | 19,426$3,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,600.46 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed No | 2c | 13,596$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.36 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce4…db20backed No | 0c | 13,519$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…7e17backed No | 1c | 9,003$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.65 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.23per pick | 31cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc7…af9dbacked No | 0c | 8,837$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 12c | 7,032$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,208.44 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…a1dbbacked No | 77c | 7,007$5,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,400 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 23c | 6,159$1,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,721.62 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 1c | 5,026$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.31 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 0c | 4,301$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 10c | 4,227$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.12 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 17c | 4,079$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.95 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6d…58f6backed Yes | 25c | 3,992$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,994.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…594fbacked No | 76c | 3,480$2,637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,637.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 17c | 3,350$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,771.46 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 13c | 3,128$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.27 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 17c | 3,031$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,513.22 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -64%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 32c | 2,283$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,553.05 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa591…9079backed No | 69c | 2,137$1,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,477.3 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 62cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 37c | 2,000$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.61 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +8.4wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x59ae…6264backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 4cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 65c | 1,754$1,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.99 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…5ccebacked No | 2c | 1,745$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa3…16e5backed Yes | 21c | 1,609$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,269.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc20c…e2bdbacked Yes | 25c | 1,500$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,126.93 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 29cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x615c…e9c3backed Yes | 6c | 1,436$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,357.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.95per pick | 6cpaid | +1,718.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No | 65c | 1,429$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.5 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb704…dc1ebacked No | 1c | 1,401$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 44c | 1,363$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.77 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +9.9wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 75c | 1,330$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.69 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed No | 2c | 1,330$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -7.2wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x97e8…be6cbacked Yes | 38c | 1,301$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed Yes | 34c | 1,300$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 45c | 1,285$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.65 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c77…5aafbacked Yes | 22c | 1,248$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +182.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…0ba6backed No | 76c | 1,160$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26df…f747backed No | 64c | 1,089$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.66 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…a878backed No | 40c | 1,060$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.59 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 37c | 1,056$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.98 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 66c | 1,053$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.28 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0826…bcbcbacked Yes | 78c | 1,034$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…e845backed No | 70c | 1,034$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.81 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 27c | 1,003$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.52 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…40d4backed No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 5c | 994.36$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.52 | 82 | 8.5%7 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 71c | 981.24$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.25 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 4c | 831.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 65c | 807.5$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.5 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x909a…93eabacked No | 78c | 729.18$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d5…3ba6backed No | 67c | 721.14$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.91 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…a37abacked Yes | 56c | 713.12$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.3 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 37c | 669.33$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.33 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…0cdfbacked No | 75c | 655.29$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.35 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe781…5e52backed No | 78c | 641.99$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.75 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…d9e3backed Yes | 6c | 609.27$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.87 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +81%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…5fa3backed Yes | 5c | 570.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.74 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +227.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b12…c3c1backed Yes | 4c | 555$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,602.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 21c | 550.72$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.06 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 76c | 546.22$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.64 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 34c | 526.34$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.86 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 67c | 525$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.3 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 47c | 524.24$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.02 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked Yes | 35c | 517.38$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.92 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 500.29$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.76 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60e…d332backed Yes | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 62c | 500$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.96 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 28c | 500$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed No | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 21c | 500$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.5 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +9.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +346.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe870…6bf8backed No | 21c | 477.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 22c | 476.03$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.62 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 474.35$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.5 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8f…162cbacked No | 22c | 452.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.65 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 17c | 450$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.36 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 49c | 446.48$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.51 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed No | 73c | 433.23$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.28 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed No | 40c | 429.99$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.36 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc14…2e9bbacked Yes | 26c | 407.35$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.93 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -28%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x681b…bf35backed Yes | 25c | 403.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 73c | 400$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 17c | 400$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 10c | 400$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ac…a00fbacked Yes | 30c | 400$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 33c | 398$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.59 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed No | 47c | 377.8$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.52 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 77c | 372.28$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.7 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 21c | 352.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.91 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 30c | 352.8$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.4 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 76c | 351.59$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.43 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked No | 69c | 346.17$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.05 | 110 | 31.8%35 W · 75 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…ba5bbacked Yes | 32c | 338.93$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +56%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd94…b271backed Yes | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf83d…4fc7backed Yes | 27c | 331.37$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c62…70bbbacked Yes | 4c | 320$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,464.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…0f90backed Yes | 38c | 312.5$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…e125backed No | 52c | 310$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.12 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf149…8219backed Yes | 48c | 309.38$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 40c | 303.58$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.9 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +8.3wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Dan Bongino leave the Trump administration in 2025?this page
- Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Mike Waltz leave the Trump administration in 2025?Yes won
- Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.