Us Politics · resolved market
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfa43b8203dbb7ba8ae8c22e59599673d4f145648334dc2109aa19b47d0786fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9584…7b37backed Yes | 3c | 12,198$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 15c | 4,893$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.67 | 82 | 8.5%7 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 7c | 4,600$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 11c | 4,533$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.97 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 11c | 3,406$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.33 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea4…f07bbacked Yes | 7c | 2,484$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 2,302$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.59 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,123$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 10c | 1,639$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.94 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7918…f39fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,340$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…56d6backed Yes | 12c | 700$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 12c | 631.92$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 70c | 625$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.08 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +10.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf07a…960ebacked Yes | 17c | 583.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c37…c8f0backed Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 9c | 499.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 6c | 495$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6912…f912backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 3c | 442$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -64%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 8c | 433.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 12c | 408.86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbe…fce9backed Yes | 12c | 338.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked Yes | 12c | 312.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed Yes | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 241$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 217.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77e2…5148backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 14c | 199.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 10c | 199.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…004ebacked Yes | 16c | 199.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b18…910dbacked Yes | 12c | 147.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a85…c04bbacked Yes | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +36%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…9adabacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5417…0204backed Yes | 12c | 117.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef72…3c45backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed No | 69c | 73.04$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4023…2241backed Yes | 16c | 67.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed Yes | 24c | 49.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration in 2025?this page
- Will Dan Bongino leave the Trump administration in 2025?Yes won
- Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Mike Waltz leave the Trump administration in 2025?Yes won
- Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.