Us Politics · resolved market
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80dbcce5a1e4e4a1dc769a1d3ed66ef704a4c578da49423438a605bb2c3915ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $523,189
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $492,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $523,189 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 349 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9268…6ce0backed Yes | 39c | 28,423$11,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,084.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf356…ee01backed No | 61c | 28,423$17,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,084.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 8c | 24,971$1,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,922.77 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 17,584$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.53 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 13c | 10,182$1,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,298.38 | 82 | 8.5%7 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 64c | 10,001$6,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,575.4 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 8c | 9,677$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.28 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -64%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 25c | 8,890$2,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,244.43 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2b…5b75backed No | 70c | 8,718$6,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,572.47 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No | 77c | 8,588$6,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,944.33 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 26c | 7,967$2,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,093.81 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 24c | 7,320$1,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,758.78 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked Yes | 24c | 7,044$1,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,696.09 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 2c | 7,007$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.36 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…594fbacked No | 79c | 6,853$5,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,448.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 36c | 6,686$2,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,418.13 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 5c | 5,479$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.12 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 17c | 5,095$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.96 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 8c | 4,966$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 33c | 4,162$1,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,368.5 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 3,651$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.11 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4821…a754backed No | 65c | 3,618$2,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,277.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 34c | 3,333$1,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,133.22 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 74c | 3,292$2,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.61 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 73c | 3,062$2,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.45 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…fa48backed No | 69c | 3,055$2,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…c94fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,000$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed No | 72c | 2,944$2,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.82 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Yes | 39c | 2,871$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125.04 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Yes | 5c | 2,702$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.61 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…5eaebacked Yes | 37c | 2,548$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 34c | 2,500$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaf…97bfbacked Yes | 21c | 2,414$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,403$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.9 | 110 | 10%11 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf23a…d3f8backed No | 64c | 2,321$1,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.75 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 63cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 66c | 2,066$1,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.63 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed No | 68c | 2,034$1,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.58 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +55%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 71c | 2,008$1,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.26 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…6318backed No | 63c | 2,000$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f3…d859backed No | 70c | 1,846$1,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.18 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 19c | 1,828$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.8 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 33c | 1,823$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.22 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…5fa3backed Yes | 4c | 1,806$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.93 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +227.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…06afbacked Yes | 16c | 1,803$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.48 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,759$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.12 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,727$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.57 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c8…9be6backed Yes | 21c | 1,681$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5685…62e2backed No | 80c | 1,617$1,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cee…f962backed No | 64c | 1,562$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.08 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 78c | 1,513$1,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.69 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 24c | 1,510$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.95 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes | 15c | 1,474$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.18 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d08…3defbacked No | 56c | 1,417$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 5c | 1,357$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.21 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 10c | 1,326$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.51 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8329…96c2backed No | 54c | 1,291$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.87 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…73a1backed No | 63c | 1,259$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.82 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1732…e713backed Yes | 4c | 1,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4727…aa86backed Yes | 48c | 1,243$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 36c | 1,239$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.37 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x023e…4f21backed Yes | 22c | 1,188$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed No | 79c | 1,158$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.32 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked No | 56c | 1,061$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.89 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 79c | 1,001$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.74 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc14…2e9bbacked Yes | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -28%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22f0…ae31backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6c…890ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x126b…a516backed Yes | 38c | 999.98$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed Yes | 3c | 989$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Yes | 36c | 977.08$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.13 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 8c | 973.62$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.86 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1085…2d69backed No | 60c | 956.96$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.37 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be1…a3c4backed Yes | 11c | 916.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 80c | 916.27$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.28 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…5945backed Yes | 6c | 865.9$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.26per pick | 14cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8a48…7bc7backed Yes | 23c | 863.42$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 34c | 850$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 3c | 848.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffd…c854backed Yes | 10c | 830$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.94 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf68…3fdebacked No | 75c | 823.31$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes | 3c | 785.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 13c | 785.41$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.89 | 142 | 30.3%43 W · 99 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…e845backed No | 75c | 780$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.07 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 35c | 776.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.73 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae43…8194backed No | 67c | 765.81$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.31 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed Yes | 47c | 750$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.5 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 66c | 749.97$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.49 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed Yes | 30c | 737.9$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.61 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked No | 77c | 714.39$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.74 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6974…1287backed Yes | 8c | 712.4$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 2c | 700$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb9…74bfbacked No | 67c | 686.3$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 41c | 667$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.76 | 88 | 20.5%18 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc030…22e4backed Yes | 6c | 665.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 5c | 639.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 24c | 631.79$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.23 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 11c | 616.11$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9833…0b32backed Yes | 6c | 608.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed No | 69c | 580$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025?this page
- Will Dan Bongino leave the Trump administration in 2025?Yes won
- Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Mike Waltz leave the Trump administration in 2025?Yes won
- Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.