Us Politics · resolved market
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f060d380c4afecffedc74aed4e9b114d2a7663591f1900d4c2940f4472c9a11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $257,525
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $266,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $257,525 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf79a…45edbacked Yes | 21c | 59,814$12,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,560.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x010f…5380backed No | 79c | 59,814$47,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,560.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…d685backed Yes | 31c | 27,911$8,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,652.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x069b…f8b8backed No | 69c | 27,911$19,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,652.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 10c | 6,112$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.5 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 8c | 3,458$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.03 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 79c | 3,373$2,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.39 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 3,037$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.83 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 24c | 3,018$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.08 | 82 | 8.5%7 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x024b…b70bbacked Yes | 21c | 2,403$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dd…0baabacked Yes | 9c | 2,306$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a3…88d0backed Yes | 7c | 1,396$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf3…e22fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,390$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 75c | 1,106$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.02 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…c011backed Yes | 9c | 1,082$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 79c | 1,000$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.02 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 11c | 733.93$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.73 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 629$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 12c | 601$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.17 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 12c | 600$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d7…6977backed Yes | 16c | 492.84$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.29 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes | 8c | 480.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 7c | 473.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf07a…960ebacked Yes | 20c | 438.9$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62cc…9d0fbacked Yes | 9c | 399.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 8c | 398.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 11c | 390$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -64%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ba…9e00backed No | 77c | 388.42$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 12c | 370$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1427…b605backed No | 79c | 368.15$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.33 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 17c | 363$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.08 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53fc…960bbacked Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…c971backed Yes | 34c | 294$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 72c | 270.36$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.53 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 7c | 269.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc99c…f913backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed Yes | 10c | 230.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d87…ece6backed Yes | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 17c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48c8…152bbacked Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77e2…5148backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 16c | 165.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 163.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…7222backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe43…b5acbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 16c | 144.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6c…890ebacked Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 11c | 133$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 10c | 111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8b…713bbacked Yes | 18c | 110.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd13f…ee23backed Yes | 19c | 106.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…4562backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda79…db5ebacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 15c | 70$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf52…41d9backed Yes | 34c | 59.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 69c | 55.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 73c | 38.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4023…2241backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration in 2025?this page
- Will Dan Bongino leave the Trump administration in 2025?Yes won
- Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Mike Waltz leave the Trump administration in 2025?Yes won
- Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.