Us Politics · resolved market
Will Mike Waltz leave the Trump administration in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe689d84b33c9d51a455f44edc4e8f66cf7357a243dd83fd3de657d332b8c7684
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $386,168
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $333,983
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $386,168 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked No | 0c | 90,575$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.17 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 3c | 30,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 5c | 23,967$1,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,291.09 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 2c | 12,675$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.79 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed No | 19c | 8,896$1,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,733.6 | 88 | 20.5%18 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed No | 0c | 8,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 66c | 7,438$4,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,926.37 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…5eaebacked Yes | 35c | 6,376$2,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,130.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 3c | 5,380$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.5 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a6…f308backed No | 1c | 5,000$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 65c | 4,841$3,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,139.51 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 1c | 4,757$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 58c | 4,557$2,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,892.39 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 0c | 4,509$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 13c | 4,498$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.72 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 36c | 4,382$1,569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,813.69 | 82 | 8.5%7 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 52c | 4,200$2,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,192.99 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed No | 65c | 4,134$2,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,678.35 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 64c | 3,875$2,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,489.4 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x433a…71e7backed No | 0c | 3,083$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86fe…3768backed Yes | 32c | 2,869$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,955.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +357.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 2c | 2,723$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes | 59c | 2,500$1,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 36c | 2,397$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.26 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 1c | 2,296$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 3c | 2,122$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.69 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a95…6a76backed No | 38c | 1,909$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.04 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed No | 4c | 1,906$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 32c | 1,905$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 19c | 1,900$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.13 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 13c | 1,878$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.2 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e38…1b55backed Yes | 34c | 1,832$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,206.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed No | 65c | 1,825$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.18 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 17c | 1,615$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.66 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 32c | 1,591$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.31 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed No | 2c | 1,485$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb9…74bfbacked No | 67c | 1,446$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.85 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 64c | 1,417$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.24 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed No | 39c | 1,375$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.43 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked No | 2c | 1,250$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…f137backed No | 3c | 1,135$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked No | 2c | 1,100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904d…8fd8backed Yes | 37c | 1,086$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 5c | 1,052$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 8c | 1,038$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.04 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed Yes | 58c | 1,032$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.4 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +10.2wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked No | 64c | 1,030$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.87 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 35c | 1,007$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.61 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…d797backed Yes | 28c | 1,000$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked No | 29c | 975.79$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.32 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3eb…e855backed Yes | 30c | 837.45$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.64 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +360.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed No | 8c | 817.44$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.94 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e60…ac59backed No | 67c | 767$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ff…fd03backed Yes | 33c | 767$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x223e…e632backed Yes | 30c | 754.24$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 4c | 746.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 18c | 717$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.82 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 8c | 715.83$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.41 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…f7c0backed No | 42c | 666$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.05 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…614dbacked No | 2c | 660.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed No | 2c | 642.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed Yes | 31c | 637.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.79 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked No | 13c | 597.34$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0532…0b95backed No | 67c | 550$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed Yes | 35c | 550$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.5 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c8…badcbacked Yes | 32c | 529.01$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.64 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 21c | 526.02$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.82 | 135 | 56.3%76 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked No | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 36c | 499.99$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 5c | 491.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4b…4554backed No | 13c | 430$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.34 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked No | 67c | 400$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 110 | 31.8%35 W · 75 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…7a36backed Yes | 29c | 400$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbf…3155backed Yes | 31c | 399.26$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 64c | 347.94$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.63 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 5c | 334.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 25c | 316$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes | 36c | 300.33$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.21 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 36c | 300$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481d…48cfbacked No | 68c | 299.99$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.89 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed2…3e00backed Yes | 78c | 297.56$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.24 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…e0ebbacked No | 68c | 292.02$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.57 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 282.9$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.68 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7e…ff85backed Yes | 34c | 279.41$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 31c | 265$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.24 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89f4…9fd5backed Yes | 22c | 250$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4354…b65bbacked Yes | 23c | 250$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.5 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 26c | 239.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.7 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked No | 70c | 225.94$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.8 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…0020backed Yes | 33c | 211.06$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5232backed No | 48c | 209$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Yes | 36c | 200.92$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.39 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +8.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd189…06f4backed No | 18c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 74c | 178.95$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 10c | 169$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ced…b02bbacked Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +259.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…0213backed No | 41c | 151.38$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.43 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…e5c0backed Yes | 30c | 148.39$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.39 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -45%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b2d…f0d4backed No | 12c | 120.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mike Waltz leave the Trump administration in 2025?this page
- Will Dan Bongino leave the Trump administration in 2025?Yes won
- Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.