Us Politics · resolved market
U.S. withdraws from Syria in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb65ceccc47e3092eb255f78f25f61274a3e432e5966966b70ba8b75e8b3aee87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,458
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,811
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,458 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked No | 73c | 2,210$1,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.77 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x653d…7805backed Yes | 50c | 998.01$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 12c | 808.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…4faebacked Yes | 18c | 700$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 11c | 694.92$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.54 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed Yes | 2c | 535$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +101.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 35c | 345.95$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.71 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 16c | 336.05$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50c0…e601backed Yes | 23c | 334.94$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.94 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 39c | 322.42$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.33 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes | 37c | 290$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.3 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 5c | 204.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 11c | 163.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7211…3f06backed No | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…4c9fbacked Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed No | 24c | 146.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.05 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0756…d711backed No | 72c | 138.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | -6.7wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 67c | 124.22$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b26…9bc4backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 53c | 98.21$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 88 | 20.5%18 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c71…14a4backed No | 46c | 87.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.61 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 75c | 79.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed No | 46c | 76.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.01 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf386…1158backed No | 69c | 72.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 74c | 55.53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd129…dcf0backed Yes | 53c | 43.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 38.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 60c | 33.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff56…ca81backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb531…efbbbacked No | 46c | 22.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.