Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump remove carried interest loophole before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e13dc6f11e4ee850d374741aef5ad2b5accbee90ce5f510339f765885547aca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $160,418
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $157,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $160,418 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ac2…9a73backed Yes | 11c | 71,120$7,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,823.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 25c | 999.95$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.99 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 7c | 903.26$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.66 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8496…fa6cbacked Yes | 17c | 861.45$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.5 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 4c | 843.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 24c | 719.99$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.25 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed Yes | 25c | 650.1$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.52 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked No | 75c | 640.78$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.16 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 15c | 422.11$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.32 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74da…1ba5backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked No | 76c | 394.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.74 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…1076backed Yes | 12c | 372.41$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35d2…d059backed Yes | 25c | 306.43$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 11c | 202.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 16c | 170.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac61…f5f7backed Yes | 18c | 146$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 10c | 145.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 18c | 115.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 10c | 101.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 22c | 100.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba2…eaa7backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6f…bdcfbacked No | 74c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c0…511ebacked No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf386…1158backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…4bdfbacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8d…d29ebacked No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.