Ukraine · resolved market
Trump x Putin talk before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1b53c9bd9e795af61d57d6ca9430075e552d7f02cf055b92212d461656fd19f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 78c | 8,476$6,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,871.57 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed No | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x876a…9b82backed No | 1c | 4,098$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 68c | 3,357$2,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,271.99 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked No | 66c | 3,333$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,199.78 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked No | 1c | 2,211$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +6.5wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 11cpaid | +190.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +134.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 33c | 969.15$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.17 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed Yes | 36c | 802.21$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.37 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 66c | 638.5$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.37 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f94…380ebacked No | 62c | 635.53$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed No | 43c | 613.78$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.54 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 33c | 532.25$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.19 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 31c | 495.74$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.96 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 62c | 470.23$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.74 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 39c | 355$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.85 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked No | 62c | 299.98$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.99 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed Yes | 28c | 286.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.63 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc87f…fb1fbacked Yes | 35c | 284.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.82 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -81%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 36c | 277$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.84 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed No | 69c | 260$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…20cabacked Yes | 34c | 255.43$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6726…eabdbacked Yes | 37c | 235.22$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 74c | 204.05$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 56c | 197.1$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.17 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47d2…4c10backed Yes | 35c | 171.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.99 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed Yes | 38c | 164.08$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.69 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 33c | 153.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.67 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66de…6ff4backed No | 65c | 134.24$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed Yes | 30c | 120$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 62c | 119.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 50c | 105.89$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.17 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 35c | 105$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…f634backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28da…b97dbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 33c | 99.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.09 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes | 30c | 99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.85 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a20…42c4backed No | 64c | 90$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf386…1158backed No | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…ba2fbacked No | 74c | 81.35$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74f0…0e43backed No | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked No | 64c | 79.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1452…a409backed Yes | 38c | 79.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60d…57bfbacked Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6465…e38fbacked No | 73c | 70$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 66c | 69.76$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 22 | 95.5%21 W · 1 L | +5.9wins | +0.27per pick | 69cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…9dafbacked No | 57c | 62.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94f8…30aabacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 47c | 51.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7d…8a55backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f2…a089backed No | 62c | 43.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x387f…158abacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x397f…c0edbacked Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…37ebbacked Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x804e…02cabacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…84cbbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe3…d8fbbacked No | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.