Ukraine · resolved market
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0635f8fd0777c284fdde905245bccc8822cf4e68dd3ec88f6f62d83e500308b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,157,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,318,196
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,157,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 804 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b6b…006bbacked Yes | 2c | 959,758$17,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,230.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x714b…d071backed Yes | 7c | 280,412$19,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,480.73 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…6662backed Yes | 3c | 150,248$4,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,283.2 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b3…fb40backed Yes | 21c | 126,221$26,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,462.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…22cbbacked Yes | 5c | 113,541$5,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,486.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4700…716dbacked Yes | 19c | 106,915$20,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,199.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 12c | 98,886$11,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,841.44 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee3…4772backed Yes | 13c | 74,101$9,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,360.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed Yes | 14c | 72,008$9,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,753.83 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 7c | 70,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,999.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 68,654$2,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,224.85 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49a6…7049backed Yes | 7c | 59,879$3,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,894.71 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d64…4073backed Yes | 3c | 52,500$1,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,402.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a06…201bbacked Yes | 16c | 51,453$8,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,478.14 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a1…7c68backed Yes | 12c | 47,500$5,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,493.05 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Yes | 3c | 45,695$1,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,242.45 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +284.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0a…9ad1backed Yes | 29c | 44,957$13,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,260.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x545d…c122backed Yes | 3c | 42,033$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee9…f06cbacked Yes | 5c | 40,169$1,922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,922.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 15c | 39,707$6,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,138.15 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48bd…9d3bbacked Yes | 23c | 38,679$8,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,817.98 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 38,103$1,825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,824.78 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e59…b85abacked Yes | 3c | 36,239$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 8c | 31,637$2,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,580.47 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 7c | 30,869$2,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,098.79 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b24…5b1fbacked Yes | 8c | 29,164$2,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,311.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4956…e2c7backed Yes | 23c | 28,830$6,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e78…0363backed Yes | 11c | 27,840$3,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,198.13 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 8c | 27,500$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 76c | 27,324$20,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,646.84 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa810…fd25backed Yes | 22c | 27,190$5,919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,918.5 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 11c | 26,665$2,916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,916.32 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…3600backed Yes | 1c | 25,123$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.3 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 20c | 25,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 7c | 22,802$1,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,626.1 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4159…6c30backed Yes | 5c | 22,743$1,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248.93 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Yes | 2c | 21,484$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1b…6c21backed Yes | 13c | 21,298$2,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,833.41 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 18c | 21,205$3,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,862.15 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a00…8734backed Yes | 3c | 20,675$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes | 1c | 20,160$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.49 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe855…c225backed Yes | 11c | 19,869$2,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,249.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037d…887ebacked Yes | 12c | 19,561$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,399.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db1…46a4backed Yes | 13c | 19,136$2,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,482.54 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfde6…7ed6backed Yes | 8c | 18,820$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4242…de4dbacked Yes | 11c | 18,577$2,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,043.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd3…0b2ebacked Yes | 16c | 18,303$2,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,874 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc0…428cbacked Yes | 8c | 18,098$1,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,496 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d9…f923backed Yes | 8c | 17,719$1,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,446.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x838c…5c82backed Yes | 7c | 17,241$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.61 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39a1…af66backed Yes | 7c | 17,086$1,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,247.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 4c | 16,996$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.54 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -79%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed Yes | 19c | 16,822$3,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,210.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe918…dd23backed Yes | 10c | 15,783$1,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,503 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcd…25e8backed Yes | 5c | 15,708$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4621…efccbacked Yes | 17c | 15,670$2,709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,708.94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed No | 75c | 15,250$11,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,777.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 15c | 15,190$2,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,207.07 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd25b…9f3dbacked Yes | 20c | 15,098$3,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,046.18 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 15,034$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.52 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 5c | 15,005$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 11c | 14,793$1,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,593.75 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 5c | 14,714$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.89 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 4c | 14,549$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.31 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 10c | 14,446$1,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,376.71 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 7c | 14,220$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.12 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…80c3backed Yes | 20c | 14,139$2,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,854.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 14,096$2,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,268.42 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Yes | 8c | 14,000$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +423.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1240…3a3fbacked Yes | 12c | 13,703$1,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,579.78 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…78d0backed Yes | 6c | 13,470$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…4ee0backed Yes | 8c | 13,460$1,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fab…4662backed Yes | 19c | 12,642$2,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,342.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…e7b9backed Yes | 1c | 12,074$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…3ccbbacked Yes | 6c | 11,997$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.9 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd612…dbd0backed Yes | 3c | 11,918$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.87 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 11,903$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.9 | 139 | 10.8%15 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d1…2c64backed Yes | 22c | 11,872$2,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,635.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x641e…aeb7backed Yes | 18c | 10,841$1,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900.87 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 13c | 10,661$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,349.89 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No | 77c | 10,000$7,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,323.51 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +4.3wins | +0.33per pick | 44cpaid | +142.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b1…aaadbacked Yes | 5c | 10,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x335d…c9c3backed Yes | 16c | 9,868$1,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,613.09 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 19c | 9,839$1,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,822.15 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec2…b04abacked Yes | 5c | 9,788$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4966…abb5backed Yes | 11c | 9,636$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe5…4e08backed Yes | 2c | 9,635$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.4 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffa…dd99backed Yes | 3c | 9,561$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 2c | 9,496$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.64 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 6c | 9,458$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.84 | 90 | 5.6%5 W · 85 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 18c | 9,117$1,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,656.95 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 7c | 9,000$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.28 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758c…074abacked Yes | 16c | 8,974$1,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,401.32 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked No | 76c | 8,938$6,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,170.35 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +5.6wins | +0.24per pick | 41cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2506…e1aebacked Yes | 15c | 8,912$1,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,302.75 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -79%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d91…e25bbacked Yes | 7c | 8,839$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5377…e6dabacked Yes | 14c | 8,622$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes | 6c | 8,558$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.38 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 16c | 8,533$1,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,364.35 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 8c | 8,510$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.48 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.