TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,031,999
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,008,544

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,031,999 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 350 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4338…a6c7backed Yes59c70,780$41,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,760.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f07…9d45backed No41c70,780$29,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,760.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6442…2af7backed Yes60c68,560$41,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,13610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d56…2400backed No40c68,560$27,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,1361100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf920…0559backed No52c45,823$23,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,995.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad8f…b090backed Yes48c45,823$21,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,995.04250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x022e…d93fbacked Yes56c43,000$24,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,08010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2528…6b40backed No41c31,722$13,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,715.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf2d…d280backed Yes59c31,722$18,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,715.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe762…cd2cbacked No41c31,567$12,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,624.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fd5…cd21backed No48c30,942$14,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,089.84366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+88.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd2d…2fe3backed Yes52c30,942$16,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,089.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b75…cefbbacked Yes1c16,936$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd182…8921backed Yes3c12,487$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.8940%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd3e…4102backed No44c11,439$5,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,406.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked Yes23c10,174$2,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,359.1580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.37per pick43cpaid+160.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x71e5…d10bbacked No66c7,319$4,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,521.871872.2%13 W · 5 L+3.6wins+0.20per pick52cpaid+42.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6cb0…8fc5backed Yes18c6,327$1,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,137.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No59c6,314$3,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,614.1450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe05a…5fddbacked Yes62c6,250$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,9001513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-73.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2961…dcadbacked Yes40c6,213$2,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,474.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d83…0bb9backed Yes64c5,975$3,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,798.298644.2%38 W · 48 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x83b9…0615backed Yes1c5,569$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69bc…577dbacked No38c5,337$2,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,330.04977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick52cpaid+54.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0def…0674backed Yes14c5,185$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe4a…ac42backed No40c5,037$2,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,001.41425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-38.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No26c4,811$1,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,544.819435.1%33 W · 61 L+13.1wins+0.14per pick21cpaid+167%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x39c2…d478backed Yes23c4,342$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0893…8837backed Yes1c4,312$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f1…fe6bbacked Yes35c4,305$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No62c4,272$2,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,627.979725.8%25 W · 72 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes30c3,995$1,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.311030.9%34 W · 76 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x09e6…24a1backed Yes25c3,924$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.0810933.9%37 W · 72 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed Yes68c3,616$2,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,466.13850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x483a…5c3fbacked No52c3,402$1,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,626.97250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6584…3843backed No71c2,930$2,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$837.281250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdce8…95d4backed Yes28c2,847$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80030%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No70c2,777$1,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841.694522.2%10 W · 35 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf2dd…82d3backed Yes16c2,758$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.084721.3%10 W · 37 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-53.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87a4…953ebacked Yes34c2,632$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a3a…994abacked Yes1c2,617$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes18c2,600$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.5430127.2%82 W · 219 L+1.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes8c2,571$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.041,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ab…a9b7backed Yes16c2,561$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3609…1254backed Yes26c2,552$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No77c2,500$1,926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.077611.8%9 W · 67 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c53…44f2backed Yes72c2,467$1,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,783.551315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.19per pick34cpaid-33.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c2,386$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.282560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x155c…1b09backed Yes16c2,161$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc840…63c2backed Yes18c2,161$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd51b…99a4backed Yes61c2,071$1,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,265.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes5c2,064$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5119011.6%22 W · 168 L-0.4wins0.00per pick12cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x625f…9ff6backed Yes31c1,921$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.53333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4da…2db1backed Yes18c1,838$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.92955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf12d…fa80backed No56c1,788$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792.781258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+30.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca92…009cbacked No76c1,785$1,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.523100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+1,134.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes58c1,750$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0154641.3%19 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+30.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5446…18f6backed No77c1,734$1,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.071957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+87.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x900a…416abacked Yes55c1,716$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935.84728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-21.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes58c1,596$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.82934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-48.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3275…2e5abacked Yes53c1,566$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9627…c4d0backed Yes13c1,482$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1728…506bbacked Yes1c1,433$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdec3…40acbacked Yes9c1,431$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.35540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-39.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ac…d62cbacked Yes62c1,402$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874.7730%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes20c1,397$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.286010%6 W · 54 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-72.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0fd…a346backed Yes54c1,300$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b74…e8d7backed No71c1,256$897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.352462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Yes12c1,200$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.530%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed No53c1,200$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5601233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-31.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c23…b248backed No39c1,160$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.772250%11 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a7…438dbacked Yes13c1,156$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.88742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid-26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3c5…b393backed Yes35c1,152$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe590…e597backed Yes72c1,150$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.491127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No68c1,120$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.873438.2%13 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked No61c1,100$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4281330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.21per pick52cpaid-55.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked No66c1,095$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3705448.1%26 W · 28 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+24.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x13e6…ef80backed Yes40c1,071$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2e7…0259backed Yes19c1,064$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-43.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x735d…78cfbacked Yes36c1,056$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.679915.2%15 W · 84 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd950…c09fbacked Yes25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde35…0239backed Yes12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.6730%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80e0…7ffabacked Yes68c995.27$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.191741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes16c965$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.991241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick30cpaid-8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf162…b6b5backed Yes38c950.14$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3602123.8%5 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.17per pick41cpaid-55.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6d31…9862backed No33c942.45$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.771020%2 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-55.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x58ff…2e8cbacked Yes11c909.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100166.3%1 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick21cpaid-91.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8a4c…532bbacked No34c902.12$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.42343.5%10 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick32cpaid-0.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f29…72e6backed Yes45c874.67$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc073…3c03backed Yes15c848.49$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.89250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed Yes15c833$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.131414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-57.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc0f…e310backed Yes31c807.21$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d1e…51eebacked Yes20c804.51$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.03742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f50…1fb6backed Yes25c800$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1961936.8%7 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick55cpaid-30.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xee0c…fba3backed Yes7c800$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e1c…60d9backed Yes7c750.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes15c750$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1161051.9%2 W · 103 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-81.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes22c739.19$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.0311549.6%57 W · 58 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-2.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4dc9…f6d4backed Yes26c730.16$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc79…1c2abacked No43c726.24$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.743540%14 W · 21 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.