TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,585,707
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,275,679

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,585,707 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 662 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3c72…8e19backed No1c133,331$1,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,695.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda38…7beabacked No0c111,000$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce41…fa02backed Yes18c110,547$19,606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90,940.781172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+71.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x80ed…12f8backed No1c106,934$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.53333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-56.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e76…ef4ebacked No2c61,406$1,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,042.53250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+131.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed No33c61,191$20,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,494.844257.1%24 W · 18 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+34.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc57b…0a2bbacked No0c56,667$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-44.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5afd…7e8dbacked Yes29c54,984$16,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,984.341822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0a0…ac10backed Yes35c53,043$18,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,651.014100%4 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+168%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2aac…1b36backed No60c41,049$24,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,549.17250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-34.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked Yes31c37,644$11,718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,926.199831.6%31 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes69c34,769$23,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,940.358617.4%15 W · 71 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-63.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes30c32,937$9,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,130.3540433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf60c…85c0backed Yes36c32,687$11,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,855.243100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+154.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfc83…09a1backed No0c31,184$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34cd…4231backed Yes33c29,568$9,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,664.661442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+96.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No0c28,784$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.789535.8%34 W · 61 L+10.0wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+16.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0d85…be2ebacked No0c28,318$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a61…2c6bbacked No7c24,895$1,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,835.41728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No0c23,300$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.310634%36 W · 70 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-17.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x95c8…f511backed No1c23,086$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.775532.7%18 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked No3c22,019$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.9815626.9%42 W · 114 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5fbd…fb37backed Yes17c22,000$3,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,189.952166.7%14 W · 7 L+4.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+55.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf37a…2171backed No2c21,842$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.3140%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b6f…c91ebacked No0c21,483$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-56.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ee3…bb63backed No68c19,940$13,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,580.991625%4 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-65.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xcdc4…a880backed No6c19,610$1,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,103.8520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-57%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes52c19,167$9,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,242.554318.6%8 W · 35 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfb5…6e04backed No1c17,784$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No77c17,612$13,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,586.2828750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…ea5abacked No80c17,502$14,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,0001353.8%7 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked No1c17,011$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.112321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-52.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f3f…9f0ebacked No1c16,479$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4107…e29cbacked No76c15,360$11,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,626.15650%3 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes24c15,236$3,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,566.372532%8 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0735…005dbacked No2c15,204$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.176832.4%22 W · 46 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed No0c15,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bac…6634backed Yes36c14,500$5,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,3501266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+66.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x38fb…5517backed No2c14,015$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes49c13,340$6,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,818.088037.5%30 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x630e…2f2fbacked No76c13,180$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00030%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4b2c…b691backed Yes23c13,102$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,102.13475%3 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.54per pick21cpaid+278.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf922…bf5bbacked No1c12,649$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.151050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes55c12,053$6,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,474.7636750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf7f6…13d9backed No2c11,931$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.53520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-65.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes27c11,786$3,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,547.8117929.1%52 W · 127 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89c7…3ff0backed Yes24c11,737$2,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,899.924231%13 W · 29 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+27.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e0b…560abacked No30c11,660$3,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,548.8230%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed No46c11,350$5,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,193.55743.9%25 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd90a…ad32backed No2c11,110$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc31d…4ebebacked No54c11,104$5,979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,978.711154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82b1…7579backed Yes25c10,798$2,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,117.657741.6%32 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c6…01c0backed Yes22c10,575$2,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,236.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+352.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49d3…ea4ebacked No1c10,556$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.22600%0 W · 60 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes22c10,311$2,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,042.8920549.8%102 W · 103 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ed1…fcfdbacked Yes37c10,295$3,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,456.8966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+41%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa9a…de87backed No2c10,287$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.74728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-32.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba27…e104backed No0c10,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa584…28e5backed Yes20c10,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,000560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+113.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c5…bd4ebacked No1c10,000$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1422321.7%5 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-57%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b44…87e1backed No1c9,870$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b94…951abacked Yes22c9,449$2,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,384.442528%7 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb08d…ba3bbacked No1c9,365$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed No75c9,222$6,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,917.585749.1%28 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked No51c9,000$4,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,5807247.2%34 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e38…a1dbbacked No74c8,793$6,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,5002259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbdf2…0367backed No1c8,786$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed No52c8,501$4,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,438.9112038.3%46 W · 74 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd134…bdf7backed No1c8,270$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43dd…cd8bbacked No1c8,106$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No79c8,000$6,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,305.9864339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7a6b…fa02backed No1c7,923$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes20c7,885$1,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,302.932516%4 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-28.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb09e…1e5abacked No3c7,699$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No41c7,473$3,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,097.7213629.4%40 W · 96 L-10.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-48.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed Yes21c7,426$1,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,852.393132.3%10 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick21cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x482b…3266backed Yes22c7,412$1,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,781.023447.1%16 W · 18 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd3d…742fbacked No79c7,114$5,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,599.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+61.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea83…5c8fbacked Yes19c7,049$1,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,680.276254.8%34 W · 28 L+7.5wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+31.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb8a6…c13fbacked No2c7,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-73.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6b4…b01dbacked No2c6,921$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x711c…8495backed Yes34c6,867$2,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,553.038641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a41…069abacked No5c6,622$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5739…5f1abacked No57c6,371$3,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,645.296532.3%21 W · 44 L-6.7wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-14.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x82d4…1f3fbacked No1c6,364$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f65…e944backed No79c6,329$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000475%3 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick77cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked No74c6,217$4,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,615.24045%18 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc9dc…9026backed No78c6,000$4,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,6961758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+116.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked No80c5,985$4,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,763.664641.3%19 W · 27 L-6.4wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-27.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb678…3913backed Yes54c5,559$2,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,561.192751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed No11c5,330$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.899711.3%11 W · 86 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fad…2eaabacked No67c5,223$3,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,515.14633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-51%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed No80c5,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0003748.6%18 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+22.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa711…eae7backed No2c5,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8756…b36cbacked No77c4,982$3,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,854.11010%1 W · 9 L-4.5wins-0.45per pick55cpaid-85.5%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No71c4,761$3,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,362.0540828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5010…75dfbacked Yes22c4,759$1,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,711.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d64…4073backed Yes18c4,752$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,876.89540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+35.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a06…201bbacked Yes41c4,728$1,919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,808.81475%3 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.46per pick29cpaid+236.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed No77c4,721$3,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,646.782733.3%9 W · 18 L-7.9wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-45.2%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.