China Taiwan · resolved market
Trump x Xi talk before June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd001b04be49828d87c29b04b5cef0312b567fc8f8d4cc5c9f8e724eaffa96dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,976
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,976 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3ae…440ebacked Yes | 18c | 4,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes | 11c | 3,150$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeddd…76b2backed No | 79c | 2,365$1,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 12c | 2,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 16c | 1,865$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f7…9769backed Yes | 20c | 1,850$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 13c | 1,302$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe726…8a6fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,243$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 20c | 1,168$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,157$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 13c | 950.72$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.28 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 24c | 939.99$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.8 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +43%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 14c | 900.29$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.04 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 3c | 841.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -61%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 20c | 800$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 2c | 777$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…8bc8backed Yes | 22c | 755.33$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 16c | 500$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 18c | 408.42$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 78c | 395$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 5c | 286.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 16c | 242.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +7.7wins | +0.65per pick | 27cpaid | +327.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed No | 79c | 240$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dba…7a15backed Yes | 15c | 224.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 21c | 201.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 18c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 11c | 155.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 23c | 135.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…bf18backed No | 79c | 135.64$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd434…ebd2backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 22c | 125.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8414…108fbacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a5…c139backed Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 19c | 116.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 27c | 110.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09f7…a365backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd39d…00bcbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cac…6fa7backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26a…7f0ebacked Yes | 19c | 99.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 21c | 99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.36per pick | 42cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7377…6414backed Yes | 16c | 93.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…d2e8backed No | 79c | 90$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…ba2fbacked Yes | 24c | 83.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed Yes | 18c | 80.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +5.3wins | +0.41per pick | 52cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 75c | 74.13$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf386…1158backed No | 79c | 63.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc951…a611backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked Yes | 20c | 62.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f7…fa11backed No | 72c | 48.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f6…8d90backed No | 80c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f0…0e43backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…7553backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 64cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…c12dbacked No | 78c | 25.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…367cbacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.