AI · resolved market
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b3c9cb6f8a5183cbcb5ba89906b74c4595bef1dd4a8f86fb0993afc5400604a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,594
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,594 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc929…a949backed No | 3c | 8,324$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.37 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcae0…c7b0backed Yes | 58c | 1,925$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Yes | 48c | 767.6$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.53 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 54c | 738.8$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.31 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 53c | 732.51$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.67 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 32c | 707.67$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.22 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f20…1855backed Yes | 65c | 484.05$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x854e…8ad8backed Yes | 66c | 369.47$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.67 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed Yes | 24c | 365.74$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.51 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 53c | 281.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 266.52$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.8 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 38c | 234.3$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.93 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 48c | 226.6$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.56 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffc…9107backed Yes | 57c | 218.08$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.08 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 57c | 215.15$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.84 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed Yes | 46c | 209.29$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.99 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c54…1d08backed Yes | 49c | 204.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.38 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 28c | 202.89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.69 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf386…1158backed No | 58c | 172.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe644…1dffbacked Yes | 58c | 171.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5def…1283backed Yes | 49c | 165$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.15 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…0b8bbacked Yes | 47c | 151.87$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.49 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +77%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 49c | 150.01$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3470…92fdbacked Yes | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b4…27f7backed Yes | 73c | 149.6$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +290.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 48c | 138.11$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.17 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5153…af7dbacked Yes | 65c | 128.76$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 36c | 125.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.63 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8c41…8ca1backed Yes | 47c | 125.02$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.62 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 47c | 113.87$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 45c | 109.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.07 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf2…9621backed Yes | 65c | 105$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55dd…8702backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 44c | 91.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23b5…e803backed Yes | 59c | 84.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed No | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 48c | 67.43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 51c | 64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…0d25backed Yes | 68c | 57.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…aa2bbacked No | 51c | 52.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04b…34b9backed Yes | 53c | 52.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…8652backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 26c | 49.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 48c | 49.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed No | 56c | 48.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed No | 35c | 47.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd715…17d9backed No | 54c | 46.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…75dcbacked Yes | 75c | 45.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 28c | 41.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03fe…b465backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…c90ebacked Yes | 69c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed No | 55c | 38.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 46c | 33.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6270…43edbacked Yes | 48c | 31.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe906…6cf2backed Yes | 47c | 31.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…fc73backed Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe98…9e5abacked Yes | 73c | 29.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd356…c6bcbacked No | 66c | 24.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 54c | 20.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe683…9095backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1d…3804backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34d…e48abacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe945…a82ebacked Yes | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?this page
- Will NightCap Camera be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?No won
- Will Procreate Pocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?No won
- Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.