AI · resolved market
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53fd44cb2145827025dce6a5d7cf253a3fd52244a0547d905f90ec9ec5f3c973
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc929…a949backed Yes | 3c | 5,128$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.87 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 46c | 2,143$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.32 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcae0…c7b0backed Yes | 40c | 1,167$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed Yes | 44c | 560.38$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.52 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 48c | 466.72$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.25 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 54c | 447.62$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.9 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1711…3382backed Yes | 54c | 368.34$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb2…9f23backed No | 57c | 360$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd895…3d8fbacked No | 52c | 266.76$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.09 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 60c | 239.9$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.87 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 35c | 199.98$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 35c | 186.81$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.14 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed Yes | 44c | 159.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f20…1855backed Yes | 56c | 158.31$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 38c | 134.86$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 127.68$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.18 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 56c | 121$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.83 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3470…92fdbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 43c | 98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed No | 53c | 94.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf2…9621backed No | 59c | 92$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09f0…5991backed No | 57c | 85.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 62c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed No | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5def…1283backed Yes | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 56c | 75.16$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed No | 63c | 62.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 57c | 58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 56.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 61c | 51.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 56c | 44.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffc…9107backed Yes | 65c | 41.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 56c | 41.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c41…8ca1backed Yes | 43c | 37.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 37c | 35.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 57c | 24.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed No | 54c | 22.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…6adcbacked No | 69c | 22.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2dc…e9ebbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9acc…3e42backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?this page
- Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?Yes won
- Will NightCap Camera be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?No won
- Will Procreate Pocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.