TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Apple release HomePod mini successor by December 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$149,649
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$132,760

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $149,649 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 237 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa973…f0f6backed No79c36,901$29,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,838.18825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-67%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes11c8,843$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,007.9319011.6%22 W · 168 L-0.4wins0.00per pick12cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8eac…bca8backed Yes4c6,806$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-69%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes3c5,929$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.11030%3 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-53.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes31c4,945$1,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,524.3510426.9%28 W · 76 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-25.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes17c4,279$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.57219.4%14 W · 58 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-63%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes11c3,272$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.922254.5%12 W · 10 L+8.3wins+0.38per pick17cpaid+297.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x109e…0a59backed No45c2,062$923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,138.241323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-50.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes11c1,970$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.214531.1%14 W · 31 L+8.4wins+0.19per pick13cpaid+143.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c1,183$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.21,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked Yes21c1,151$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.32548%12 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb760…ccd7backed Yes36c1,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3607946.8%37 W · 42 L+10.0wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+17.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes36c1,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3606839.7%27 W · 41 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f7a…d37ebacked Yes4c977.79$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.731216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-67.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdb1…276cbacked No48c858.85$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.792774.1%20 W · 7 L+4.2wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+30.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc894…b9f6backed Yes34c800$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.6930%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes18c779.99$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.85113.7%7 W · 44 L-0.2wins0.00per pick14cpaid-65%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes7c764$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.718311.5%21 W · 162 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc529…4f2cbacked No64c699.98$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.991250%6 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x81d7…83b2backed Yes40c699.25$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x674f…fe21backed No60c699.25$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d8a…26adbacked No60c699.25$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11f5…a168backed Yes40c699.25$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d6b…29efbacked No60c699.25$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea88…b02ebacked Yes40c699.25$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fbf…65fcbacked Yes40c699.25$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51b5…7fd2backed No60c699.25$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba36…4e5dbacked Yes40c699.25$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca20…5877backed No60c699.25$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x661e…81d6backed Yes18c694.44$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.711030%3 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-36.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes36c694$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.844619.6%9 W · 37 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-64.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3461…4629backed Yes73c682.96$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500520%1 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.43per pick63cpaid-74.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes16c653$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.196833.8%23 W · 45 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+34.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5282…e207backed Yes45c641.56$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.4630%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x059c…39ecbacked No14c614.39$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.891457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+100%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb911…a649backed Yes26c600$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1581526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-31.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0060…4cc4backed Yes37c581.47$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.491315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-76.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x40ac…ee4bbacked Yes66c570.31$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.41216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.24per pick40cpaid-76.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3a29…46e7backed No56c564.47$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.34742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid-31.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30b2…9e25backed Yes31c559.24$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.152832.1%9 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdaf…e2e0backed Yes38c550$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21130%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a5d…185dbacked Yes38c520.26$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick43cpaid-63.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa08d…3e4dbacked No60c514.16$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ef…646bbacked Yes40c514.16$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b46…0ce6backed Yes40c514.16$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51da…3dc6backed No60c514.16$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d70…abf6backed No60c514.16$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe418…6accbacked No60c514.16$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc235…aa5bbacked Yes40c514.16$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3d9…e297backed Yes40c514.16$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22c5…9085backed Yes40c514.16$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44dc…aa8ebacked No60c514.16$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1526312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Yes35c500$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1751040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-41.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-39.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x245c…2486backed No27c478.67$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.892642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd486…2287backed Yes9c473.28$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-81.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No29c464.23$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.65843.1%25 W · 33 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x02d8…36a7backed Yes40c458.45$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x635d…d9e4backed Yes40c458.45$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad4b…60edbacked No60c458.45$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76a1…625ebacked No60c458.45$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd168…d682backed Yes40c458.45$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7bb…923abacked Yes40c458.45$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91e7…6a9bbacked No60c458.45$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0420…16a9backed Yes40c458.45$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c5d…6849backed No60c458.45$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07e1…1b59backed No60c458.45$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b3f…5d11backed Yes40c454.68$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x529b…d6dfbacked No60c454.68$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdca…128bbacked Yes40c454.68$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76d0…0e6abacked No60c454.68$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd13…0621backed No60c454.68$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b23…2096backed No60c454.68$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb354…2d05backed No60c454.68$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89f8…e66bbacked Yes40c454.68$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3ad…4b66backed Yes40c454.68$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea9…ed19backed Yes40c454.68$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3880…b149backed Yes4c429.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60c9…1e7dbacked Yes40c429.55$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94d5…9567backed No60c429.55$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78c2…6988backed Yes40c429.55$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58de…a62bbacked Yes40c429.55$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3879…4e01backed Yes40c429.55$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7673…90ffbacked No60c429.55$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x090a…5802backed Yes40c429.55$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c80…d682backed No60c429.55$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x393f…3b39backed No60c429.55$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c13…30dfbacked No60c429.55$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes45c424.35$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.252147.6%10 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f1…7242backed Yes41c422.85$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe89c…9bd8backed Yes41c422.85$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4eb7…fe70backed No59c422.85$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa02a…6e92backed Yes41c422.85$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x754e…3209backed No59c422.85$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb20…da43backed No59c422.85$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa95f…a522backed No59c422.85$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f7a…ab56backed Yes41c422.85$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ea1…2d7fbacked No59c422.85$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.