Us Politics · resolved market
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8143ff1a26fbd70e7ff1dcd68da2bf2cef327a1be279a8f192a8e079902822aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $432,337
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $393,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $432,337 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xece9…75a4backed No | 67c | 53,619$35,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,694.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8326…1cbdbacked Yes | 33c | 53,619$17,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,694.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebd8…e9b1backed No | 79c | 48,045$37,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,089.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…0bd7backed Yes | 21c | 48,045$10,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,089.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed Yes | 4c | 7,638$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.33 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 6,060$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.26 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…5eaebacked Yes | 9c | 5,555$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…fc91backed Yes | 3c | 4,663$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.75 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,088$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.32 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b2…17e4backed Yes | 7c | 3,000$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a0…f233backed Yes | 4c | 2,835$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…acd1backed Yes | 2c | 2,744$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…f421backed Yes | 8c | 2,458$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6de…edf1backed Yes | 2c | 2,250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 14c | 2,238$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.86 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1569…4e0cbacked No | 66c | 2,222$1,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 10c | 2,172$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.63 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 18c | 2,048$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.76 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…be32backed Yes | 1c | 2,018$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 30c | 2,002$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.74 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.44 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6205…101fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 4c | 1,649$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.23 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 67c | 1,585$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.22 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…147abacked Yes | 11c | 1,576$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900a…bb70backed Yes | 2c | 1,558$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1af…701ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,524$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…fb06backed Yes | 3c | 1,400$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 7c | 1,300$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 6c | 1,232$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.94 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb907…539abacked Yes | 3c | 1,168$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…dc48backed Yes | 44c | 1,057$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 10c | 1,011$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.2 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 9c | 1,004$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3e…e98fbacked Yes | 17c | 999.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd74…6425backed Yes | 10c | 999.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa6…b644backed Yes | 14c | 804.34$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a66…4acbbacked Yes | 6c | 800$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c97…0004backed No | 66c | 752.24$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…fa0dbacked Yes | 4c | 736.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6170…99c8backed Yes | 2c | 708.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaae…907ebacked Yes | 29c | 688.48$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…18e5backed Yes | 2c | 655$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 6c | 650$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60c8…3c9cbacked Yes | 5c | 638.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +37%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…a3e9backed Yes | 4c | 625.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c09…9929backed Yes | 12c | 612.23$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…4e67backed Yes | 26c | 600.04$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.17 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…e7f8backed Yes | 5c | 598$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25a3…b0debacked Yes | 6c | 596$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f7…9769backed Yes | 7c | 589.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0d…e377backed Yes | 4c | 576.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e23…fba8backed Yes | 6c | 570$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e91…42e5backed Yes | 3c | 561.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe2…87c5backed No | 76c | 553.99$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.28 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…4938backed Yes | 3c | 537.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 27c | 502.54$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f95…15cfbacked Yes | 5c | 499$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77e2…5148backed Yes | 8c | 464.47$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes | 22c | 450.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1e…3f36backed Yes | 4c | 438.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe95c…c6f1backed Yes | 4c | 434$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…50c7backed Yes | 10c | 420$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 11cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65e3…8533backed Yes | 6c | 412$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x559e…be0ebacked Yes | 12c | 407.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc59…0725backed Yes | 5c | 401$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6c…287fbacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78d6…021dbacked Yes | 38c | 391.55$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe435…2638backed Yes | 17c | 389.91$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6641…297abacked Yes | 6c | 384$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73df…89a8backed Yes | 11c | 371.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7c…fddebacked Yes | 8c | 361.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…329cbacked Yes | 6c | 360$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e9…56d4backed Yes | 8c | 357.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 355$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…c94fbacked Yes | 5c | 339.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf34f…8674backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d2…3ce9backed Yes | 25c | 321.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbafd…9b9dbacked Yes | 22c | 318.18$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4376…7db0backed Yes | 6c | 307$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 7c | 299.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec52…59e8backed Yes | 8c | 295$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes | 8c | 288$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x821e…4408backed Yes | 6c | 283$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c36…536dbacked Yes | 8c | 282$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeea…4d24backed Yes | 6c | 282$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfb…80debacked Yes | 11c | 276.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…0e3fbacked Yes | 24c | 274.32$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 268.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5612…e16cbacked Yes | 6c | 259$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eea…7c1abacked Yes | 5c | 258$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…295bbacked Yes | 24c | 255.75$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 24c | 254.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.23 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 35c | 250$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.34 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd33…1d81backed Yes | 6c | 250$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…2493backed Yes | 15c | 244.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf197…1f8abacked Yes | 6c | 243$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8355…2941backed Yes | 21c | 242.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15?this page
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August 15?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on August 15?Yes won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 15?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.