Us Politics · resolved market
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd627b2fcd48d7c6c36603c0c465c9907144b05693545b187b59663914240ff9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $198,933
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $153,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $198,933 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 7,293$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.44 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…6097backed Yes | 1c | 7,020$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed Yes | 8c | 3,479$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.32 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 9c | 3,453$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.27 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 4c | 3,028$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.89 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5217…836fbacked Yes | 4c | 3,000$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd152…4faabacked Yes | 14c | 2,308$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a0…f233backed Yes | 2c | 2,180$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8be9…cfc3backed Yes | 24c | 2,098$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef5…5ee2backed Yes | 2c | 1,809$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 42c | 1,751$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.9 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e53…ba80backed Yes | 5c | 1,734$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.61 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b2…17e4backed Yes | 4c | 1,681$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 10c | 1,497$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.91 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…fb35backed Yes | 3c | 1,319$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -89.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,247$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.58 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd535…fa67backed Yes | 5c | 1,198$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3599…fb3bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,121$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b1…066fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,027$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddd6…6682backed Yes | 10c | 979.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 10c | 972.63$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.61 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…43c0backed Yes | 4c | 969.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed4f…e25abacked Yes | 28c | 917.6$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.35 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5d…e7d6backed Yes | 9c | 908$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88db…3843backed Yes | 12c | 906.93$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.95 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked No | 65c | 878.64$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.84 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda89…0d0bbacked Yes | 13c | 759.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 9c | 738.49$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.84 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 13c | 720.46$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.05 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fad…8eeebacked Yes | 14c | 702.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5152…7cb0backed Yes | 10c | 684$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b1…2ef4backed Yes | 9c | 679$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c2…4373backed Yes | 12c | 572$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5c…67cbbacked Yes | 8c | 557.16$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 4c | 556$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 43c | 548.15$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.68 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…3685backed Yes | 2c | 535.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 26c | 531.6$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.8 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes | 49c | 521.73$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75a5…a5bfbacked Yes | 11c | 521$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…30a9backed Yes | 10c | 488.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.07 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…d8a3backed Yes | 4c | 473.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd327…9a87backed Yes | 6c | 459.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b2…1f69backed Yes | 12c | 457.08$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 67c | 454.19$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.47 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a6…8bc8backed Yes | 7c | 452.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 64c | 449.01$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.67 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc632…0755backed Yes | 10c | 449$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd466…6256backed Yes | 4c | 447$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3656…ab5bbacked Yes | 14c | 445$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 6c | 439.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…147abacked Yes | 9c | 434.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc459…17c6backed Yes | 5c | 412$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4af4…e532backed Yes | 22c | 389$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33e…de10backed Yes | 8c | 377.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0d…6f80backed Yes | 10c | 372$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb6…2cdfbacked Yes | 5c | 362$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa30c…efefbacked Yes | 23c | 352$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…6d7fbacked Yes | 4c | 345$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed Yes | 7c | 339$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…16b3backed Yes | 7c | 335.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x247d…7d27backed Yes | 16c | 314.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x140c…e68cbacked Yes | 9c | 310$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.3 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 15c | 300$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23e…e561backed Yes | 5c | 298$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec52…59e8backed Yes | 5c | 294.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b59…692bbacked Yes | 9c | 283$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd658…2737backed Yes | 5c | 279$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd3…cbfabacked Yes | 4c | 275$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6c…ea52backed Yes | 5c | 262$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b2…1d20backed Yes | 14c | 259$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec37…19d8backed Yes | 4c | 259$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed86…98f4backed Yes | 10c | 253$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea6…b249backed Yes | 8c | 250.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7a…1c79backed Yes | 18c | 249$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60c3…9a43backed Yes | 7c | 245$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7da7…726ebacked Yes | 5c | 244$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd08a…384dbacked Yes | 11c | 234$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 13c | 232.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab24…8c8ebacked No | 76c | 232.32$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.57 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca5…6785backed Yes | 6c | 228.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…f56bbacked Yes | 22c | 228$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x171b…6c1dbacked Yes | 22c | 222$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…2f88backed Yes | 23c | 219.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4af3…e311backed Yes | 9c | 219$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 15c | 218.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7be2…c5efbacked Yes | 9c | 210.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94a2…086ebacked Yes | 7c | 208.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes | 7c | 207.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc290…d330backed Yes | 10c | 205$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 203.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e3…c136backed Yes | 18c | 202$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c43…ba44backed Yes | 10c | 201$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012a…bca8backed Yes | 10c | 194.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a6…1526backed Yes | 8c | 191$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3af3…366cbacked Yes | 10c | 188$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df3…f15abacked Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…ede2backed Yes | 10c | 187$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9afe…abd3backed Yes | 8c | 185$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15?this page
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August 15?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on August 15?Yes won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 15?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.