Us Politics · resolved market
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57ee125c6f5b57b1b0c537289443d791a604e2c9e8d2a7a37d626cb4118c92e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $704,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $726,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $704,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xebd8…e9b1backed Yes | 67c | 58,946$39,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,452.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…03e7backed No | 33c | 58,946$19,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,452.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8988…5dd5backed Yes | 43c | 44,483$19,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,355.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d6c…6c77backed No | 57c | 44,483$25,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,355.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fce…7159backed Yes | 53c | 40,265$21,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,924.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a50…f1b1backed No | 47c | 40,265$18,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,924.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef66…b05cbacked No | 50c | 36,217$18,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,108.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…8a4fbacked Yes | 50c | 36,217$18,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,108.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2a…2fe6backed Yes | 65c | 33,156$21,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,604.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca29…5986backed No | 35c | 33,156$11,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,604.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4b…651ebacked No | 46c | 32,607$14,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,999.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fc…ca0fbacked Yes | 54c | 32,607$17,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,999.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…a7b0backed Yes | 55c | 26,756$14,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,040.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa3…3199backed No | 45c | 26,756$12,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,040.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1569…4e0cbacked Yes | 52c | 13,457$6,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,498.31 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9810…f117backed Yes | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 55c | 2,634$1,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,456.28 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 16c | 2,350$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.86 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 2,200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 74c | 1,565$1,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.96 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 22c | 1,555$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.72 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9715…a090backed No | 2c | 1,264$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 40c | 1,220$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.8 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 76c | 908.05$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.06 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 16c | 770.55$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.86 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 39c | 746.67$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.05 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbef5…1c5abacked Yes | 59c | 675$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 10c | 656.95$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad9…958cbacked Yes | 63c | 630$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c49…0144backed No | 37c | 630$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 28c | 610.27$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.36 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…4e67backed Yes | 49c | 599.96$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.84 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 12c | 592.75$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.63 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe10…95cbbacked No | 31c | 554.99$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.05 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 67c | 514.47$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.55 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x960c…e052backed Yes | 62c | 499.97$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.51 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked No | 22c | 451$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.22 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed No | 12c | 402.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 45c | 400$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.31 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e3…e090backed No | 50c | 370$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7003…a528backed Yes | 50c | 370$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…3685backed No | 7c | 332.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 48c | 331.92$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.59 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 67c | 320$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.11 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 16c | 313.28$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…68b6backed No | 12c | 312.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…6097backed No | 17c | 301.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…acd1backed No | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ef…1e04backed Yes | 74c | 281.66$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 21c | 271.68$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 79c | 269$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 23c | 256.72$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.84 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1957…7656backed No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…19d8backed Yes | 27c | 230.79$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.6 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef84…df06backed No | 9c | 230.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x979e…0981backed No | 36c | 228$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4090…57cbbacked Yes | 73c | 223.29$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662f…ac37backed No | 56c | 208.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9df…d8bcbacked No | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee97…ee69backed No | 24c | 202.43$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2615…c16dbacked Yes | 60c | 200$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked No | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9878…aebbbacked Yes | 63c | 188.67$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…be47backed No | 13c | 184.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…2f88backed Yes | 28c | 180$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.6 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x482b…3266backed No | 8c | 170$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdc…d95ebacked Yes | 57c | 168$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 43c | 164.73$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.42 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Yes | 64c | 160$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d5…a491backed Yes | 68c | 146.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed No | 47c | 142.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.88 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 63c | 142.69$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.17 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 32c | 139.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 16c | 136.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 12c | 134.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19b3…0b9bbacked No | 36c | 131.81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe646…c07cbacked No | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb04…6deabacked Yes | 58c | 130.27$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd706…fac2backed Yes | 58c | 129.41$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.41 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…5a90backed Yes | 64c | 125$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaad…262dbacked Yes | 80c | 123$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8353…4b8fbacked Yes | 62c | 121.86$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.29 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes | 57c | 120.98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.36 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9d…b43ebacked Yes | 56c | 115$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 55c | 110$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 137 | 14.6%20 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…ae77backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53cf…7d67backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb4…e260backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5912…6c5fbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 14c | 96.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 126 | 31.7%40 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked No | 16c | 95.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 55c | 87$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No | 59c | 85.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7958…c1f9backed No | 42c | 83.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on August 15?this page
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August 15?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 15?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.