World Politics · resolved market
Canada tariffs on China in effect before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x455c8aec12250cdc617d16170066f94e69175a4c83cc880661c2489ad3b5f667
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,239
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 1,454$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.63 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 2c | 669.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03e0…1f91backed No | 55c | 600$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.43per pick | 42cpaid | +129.9%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x169b…30c9backed No | 45c | 581$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.59 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 14c | 574.1$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.37 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…7676backed No | 48c | 414.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +111.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa0…488bbacked No | 65c | 340.82$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.82 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 32c | 313.02$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.47 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e55…2b2abacked No | 50c | 279.83$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.92 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 11c | 267.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4df…0d83backed No | 45c | 260.82$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf422…6743backed Yes | 46c | 216.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 53c | 185.65$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.19 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c47…9b02backed No | 55c | 181$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.45 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed Yes | 53c | 174.36$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.7 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 58c | 146$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.89 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…0848backed Yes | 39c | 139$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa344…8141backed Yes | 50c | 125$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 57c | 107.39$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.45 | 101 | 31.7%32 W · 69 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +87%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 71c | 96.86$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22bd…a216backed No | 48c | 95.44$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…1332backed Yes | 21c | 89.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked Yes | 50c | 87.18$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -5.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed Yes | 56c | 78.31$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 22c | 77.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 48c | 72.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x623a…f63fbacked No | 69c | 72.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3452…964ebacked Yes | 59c | 67.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ad…b056backed Yes | 46c | 60.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 53cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74b5…e2ffbacked Yes | 56c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed Yes | 53c | 59.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 50c | 56.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7c…51cbbacked Yes | 52c | 55.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf746…614abacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c0…511ebacked No | 67c | 45.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf64…497abacked No | 43c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +80%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed Yes | 34c | 44.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4620…2a6ebacked No | 48c | 41.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…2b77backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b2…ef50backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf386…1158backed No | 51c | 38.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc7…4292backed Yes | 55c | 36.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d02…b35cbacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…eb65backed No | 52c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 56c | 31.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 39c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 45c | 30.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5678…42ebbacked Yes | 56c | 30.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51cc…c6c9backed Yes | 45c | 30.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.35per pick | 49cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…12f6backed Yes | 54c | 28.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 27.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa822…64e6backed No | 45c | 24.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…e0c9backed Yes | 45c | 23.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 53c | 23.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e67…bfbbbacked Yes | 57c | 22.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa416…025ebacked No | 79c | 21.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -62%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…07cebacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79cf…105abacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 18cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.