NFL · resolved market
Will the Vikings resign Sam Darnold?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18b0da1968f34a102093dc6fb1624f40ed118c1a1a3cf6f56db17a3c3388aabf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,259
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,259 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 2c | 736.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 74 | 9.5%7 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked No | 78c | 411.78$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.73 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x003d…7a58backed No | 51c | 334.31$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.73 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 31c | 256.47$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.87 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x896d…df2fbacked Yes | 67c | 225.74$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed No | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed No | 78c | 191.95$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 29c | 171.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 73c | 154$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1cb…3accbacked No | 49c | 136.67$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.3 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 18c | 109.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 256 | 43.8%112 W · 144 L | +14.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x213b…fe55backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c72…1e3abacked No | 40c | 99.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.44 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53d2…0c3fbacked Yes | 65c | 97.23$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ce…e4dabacked No | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…168abacked Yes | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 30c | 66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc8…16f6backed No | 70c | 65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 38c | 64.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 77 | 18.2%14 W · 63 L | -11.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 23c | 56.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4a…2215backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 176 | 48.9%86 W · 90 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2fdbbacked No | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes | 27c | 49.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…4ed8backed No | 30c | 48.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.96 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf863…82ccbacked Yes | 66c | 48.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed Yes | 63c | 46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…f40abacked Yes | 52c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 42c | 42.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x844b…0a51backed No | 48c | 41.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 37c | 40.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 61c | 39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf386…1158backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 42c | 33.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 33.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78c4…895ebacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c98…a58bbacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa7…5455backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57fa…fd79backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8524…7d91backed No | 74c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.