TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Ghislaine Maxwell cut a deal with the Feds by August 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$212,601
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$214,954

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $212,601 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 261 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x30e4…5102backed No74c17,296$12,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,493.2513540%54 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe352…f259backed Yes11c8,891$957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$956.692227.3%6 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes16c7,639$1,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,192.2735519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes22c5,500$1,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,189.988219.5%16 W · 66 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No78c5,174$4,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,126.2941238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89fc…b5c2backed Yes9c4,424$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.623023.3%7 W · 23 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick14cpaid+72.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c4,323$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.983989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31c1…d6a8backed Yes33c4,017$1,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,32910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x892e…4e89backed Yes22c3,375$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a24…71e8backed Yes26c3,035$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795.852630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x712f…b93bbacked No73c3,000$2,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8101546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08c8…1da2backed No77c2,865$2,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.395158.8%30 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5ea…6501backed Yes27c2,852$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.77366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick33cpaid+81.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed No73c2,730$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$730.233852.6%20 W · 18 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+0.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x612a…fee9backed No77c2,610$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.67250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-34.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes16c2,364$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.9933313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes14c2,300$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.718725.1%47 W · 140 L+10.5wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xefa4…5bc6backed Yes24c2,295$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.64450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+194.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes21c2,038$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.297244.4%32 W · 40 L+8.7wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+15.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc417…3ca6backed Yes25c2,029$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.373218.8%6 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-63.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7214…433bbacked No75c2,027$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.261631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.8wins-0.23per pick55cpaid-55.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8756…b36cbacked No62c2,000$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750.442650%13 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea7…79acbacked No75c2,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5002147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfbb…dc2bbacked Yes14c1,940$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2674247.6%20 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick39cpaid-8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes28c1,815$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.7416544.8%74 W · 91 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f20…186bbacked Yes26c1,811$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46430%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71a8…3b90backed Yes23c1,803$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes29c1,648$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.7637533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes23c1,499$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.7219638.8%76 W · 120 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes29c1,326$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.3311538.3%44 W · 71 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+44.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1ad…8234backed Yes12c1,230$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.3240%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x12a7…399bbacked Yes25c1,205$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.0140%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No79c1,128$891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.0356733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd1b0…6eaebacked Yes27c1,118$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes25c1,061$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.417441.9%31 W · 43 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xed7c…da06backed No74c1,033$763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.143262.5%20 W · 12 L+5.1wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+40.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2402…9376backed No74c1,014$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f81…0caabacked Yes30c1,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001450%7 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+133.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed Yes14c999.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1409958.6%58 W · 41 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes30c968.83$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.652222.7%5 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-49.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32a4…3956backed No75c954.96$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.761241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-22.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fae…1675backed No75c930.43$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.43850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c924.84$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.131,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes20c912$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.154139%16 W · 25 L+4.3wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+69.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xac53…6133backed No61c850$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb74b…f6b7backed No71c794.56$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.74475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+39.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84ee…df72backed Yes28c787.2$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.75650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+46.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked Yes2c777$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.216833.8%23 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-40.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed No73c765.15$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.165250%26 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed Yes36c746.27$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.3710055%55 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3244…5b5dbacked Yes13c742.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes41c723$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.218033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3309…a4b2backed Yes24c718.9$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.331030%3 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked Yes14c716$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.245844.8%26 W · 32 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+37.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes14c696.74$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.212839.8%51 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6ec…1dadbacked No72c598.61$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.965961%36 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed No67c592.46$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.6211428.1%32 W · 82 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x656e…65d2backed Yes26c576.92$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502920.7%6 W · 23 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-59.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc9d9…f059backed Yes36c567.7$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc93a…d30dbacked No69c544$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c9…8beabacked No79c528.38$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.853438.2%13 W · 21 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-40.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No73c522.94$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.1915155%83 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes14c506.25$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.2519328.5%55 W · 138 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes16c500$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808231.7%26 W · 56 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No76c500$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.5614940.9%61 W · 88 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x497c…d54ebacked Yes23c500$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-31.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bc1…89e0backed Yes3c500$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-68.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No74c478.99$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.641,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes31c461.8$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.2444111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe77c…a67abacked No76c449.96$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.99137.7%1 W · 12 L-3.8wins-0.30per pick37cpaid-89.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3904…0cafbacked Yes27c444.44$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes21c421.37$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8299629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaa9f…0df3backed Yes2c410$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2190%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d53…09d1backed Yes29c402.63$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.92450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd66c…97e3backed Yes11c400$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.545726.3%15 W · 42 L+5.0wins+0.09per pick18cpaid+34.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8cce…5c11backed Yes25c397.28$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x565f…215abacked Yes26c384.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2de1…5decbacked Yes26c384.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc9c…6194backed Yes5c382.18$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No76c381$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.665527.3%15 W · 40 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-49%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc3d…498abacked Yes14c360$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.42924.1%7 W · 22 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3fd…ec0cbacked Yes25c345.74$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.840%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x253e…bf81backed Yes9c326.13$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301250%6 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+25.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No72c307.57$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.9718745.5%85 W · 102 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x80e0…7ffabacked No67c300$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1002050%10 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+33.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe969…9c89backed Yes34c295.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdcb8…101ebacked Yes7c285.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54bf…cb7fbacked No70c280$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc3f…1686backed Yes23c273.98$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe47…22debacked Yes24c262$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.88366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick38cpaid+75.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe550…ef79backed No77c261.04$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.04666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+141%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a49…7447backed Yes22c256.8$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.53129%9 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-49.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x88b6…3cffbacked No79c250$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.55265.4%34 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No76c250$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607250%36 W · 36 L+6.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+5.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xce06…9a1ebacked Yes24c249.84$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+45.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x93fc…a0e4backed Yes26c246.66$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6330%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa8c…5baebacked Yes21c238.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f1e…be3cbacked Yes28c227.78$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f53…1081backed No79c225.68$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.39366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick76cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3868…6ba8backed Yes28c224.5$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.331435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-37.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.