Us Politics · resolved market
Will Ghislaine Maxwell cut a deal with the Feds by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b8610f9ca176aebd82d9d72e930a5fb32b364a0f8cb3bfcccec581c8418926b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $212,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $214,954
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $212,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 261 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 74c | 17,296$12,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,493.25 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe352…f259backed Yes | 11c | 8,891$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.69 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 16c | 7,639$1,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,192.27 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes | 22c | 5,500$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,189.98 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 78c | 5,174$4,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,126.29 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89fc…b5c2backed Yes | 9c | 4,424$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.62 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 4,323$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…d6a8backed Yes | 33c | 4,017$1,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,329 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x892e…4e89backed Yes | 22c | 3,375$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed Yes | 26c | 3,035$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.85 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…b93bbacked No | 73c | 3,000$2,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed No | 77c | 2,865$2,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.39 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ea…6501backed Yes | 27c | 2,852$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 73c | 2,730$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.23 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x612a…fee9backed No | 77c | 2,610$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 16c | 2,364$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.99 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 14c | 2,300$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.7 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefa4…5bc6backed Yes | 24c | 2,295$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +194.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 21c | 2,038$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.29 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 25c | 2,029$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.37 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7214…433bbacked No | 75c | 2,027$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.26 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.23per pick | 55cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8756…b36cbacked No | 62c | 2,000$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.44 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea7…79acbacked No | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbb…dc2bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,940$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 28c | 1,815$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.74 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f20…186bbacked Yes | 26c | 1,811$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71a8…3b90backed Yes | 23c | 1,803$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 29c | 1,648$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.76 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 23c | 1,499$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.72 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 29c | 1,326$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.33 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ad…8234backed Yes | 12c | 1,230$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12a7…399bbacked Yes | 25c | 1,205$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 1,128$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.03 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…6eaebacked Yes | 27c | 1,118$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 25c | 1,061$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.41 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…da06backed No | 74c | 1,033$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.14 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +5.1wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2402…9376backed No | 74c | 1,014$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f81…0caabacked Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed Yes | 14c | 999.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 30c | 968.83$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.65 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32a4…3956backed No | 75c | 954.96$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.76 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fae…1675backed No | 75c | 930.43$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.43 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 924.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 20c | 912$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.15 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac53…6133backed No | 61c | 850$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb74b…f6b7backed No | 71c | 794.56$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ee…df72backed Yes | 28c | 787.2$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 2c | 777$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 73c | 765.15$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.16 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 36c | 746.27$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.37 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3244…5b5dbacked Yes | 13c | 742.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 41c | 723$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.2 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3309…a4b2backed Yes | 24c | 718.9$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.33 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked Yes | 14c | 716$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.24 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 14c | 696.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 72c | 598.61$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.96 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed No | 67c | 592.46$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.62 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…65d2backed Yes | 26c | 576.92$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d9…f059backed Yes | 36c | 567.7$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc93a…d30dbacked No | 69c | 544$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…8beabacked No | 79c | 528.38$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.85 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 73c | 522.94$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.19 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 14c | 506.25$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 76c | 500$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.56 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497c…d54ebacked Yes | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…89e0backed Yes | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 478.99$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.64 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 31c | 461.8$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.24 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe77c…a67abacked No | 76c | 449.96$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.99 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.30per pick | 37cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…0cafbacked Yes | 27c | 444.44$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 21c | 421.37$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.82 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9f…0df3backed Yes | 2c | 410$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d53…09d1backed Yes | 29c | 402.63$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.54 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cce…5c11backed Yes | 25c | 397.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x565f…215abacked Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de1…5decbacked Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9c…6194backed Yes | 5c | 382.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No | 76c | 381$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.66 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked Yes | 14c | 360$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fd…ec0cbacked Yes | 25c | 345.74$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x253e…bf81backed Yes | 9c | 326.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 72c | 307.57$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.97 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80e0…7ffabacked No | 67c | 300$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe969…9c89backed Yes | 34c | 295.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb8…101ebacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54bf…cb7fbacked No | 70c | 280$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3f…1686backed Yes | 23c | 273.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe47…22debacked Yes | 24c | 262$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…ef79backed No | 77c | 261.04$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +141%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed Yes | 22c | 256.8$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 79c | 250$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 76c | 250$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce06…9a1ebacked Yes | 24c | 249.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93fc…a0e4backed Yes | 26c | 246.66$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8c…5baebacked Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1e…be3cbacked Yes | 28c | 227.78$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f53…1081backed No | 79c | 225.68$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…6ba8backed Yes | 28c | 224.5$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.33 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.