AI · resolved market
Bitcoin more valuable than any company in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18a1f546561d15988eefd2643e0cbbe7d5b6700cd4054654d39f98c3d7713e82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 149 | 1.3%2 W · 147 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6641…4a1abacked Yes | 9c | 3,173$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,826$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,711$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09aa…d10fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,288$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes | 2c | 1,284$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf01…ccb3backed Yes | 8c | 1,263$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd6…23f8backed Yes | 3c | 1,153$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31a1…4c4ebacked Yes | 3c | 999.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 999.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 6c | 665.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 105 | 1.9%2 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1371…fd8ebacked Yes | 17c | 528.06$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…88f4backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e35…228ebacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…8529backed Yes | 4c | 499.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9291…a1aebacked Yes | 15c | 467.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff16…7511backed No | 79c | 448.56$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6e…d3c9backed Yes | 3c | 408.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3208…a552backed Yes | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 18c | 261.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3e…b094backed Yes | 7c | 257.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 19c | 254.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca8…ecd4backed Yes | 20c | 245.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +44%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…e446backed Yes | 12c | 236.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe2…87c5backed Yes | 20c | 234.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…c0e9backed Yes | 13c | 216$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…70a6backed Yes | 7c | 211.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584c…f44fbacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c8…da0ebacked Yes | 9c | 199.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked Yes | 19c | 198.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9596…b1e4backed Yes | 14c | 190$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x786f…f147backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x874e…03b1backed Yes | 11c | 168.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1844…1d55backed Yes | 8c | 157.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd3…c80fbacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa13…9c9abacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f2…6ff5backed Yes | 14c | 149.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae73…188abacked No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcec…e023backed Yes | 8c | 128.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ed…1fd0backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8545…6787backed Yes | 21c | 111.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd8…8c69backed Yes | 14c | 106.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 23c | 100.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29e9…ea97backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3e…2e53backed Yes | 20c | 95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…6d7bbacked Yes | 18c | 90.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…dfacbacked Yes | 18c | 81.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed No | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…e663backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6002…f4bebacked No | 79c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf386…1158backed No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ca…df06backed Yes | 19c | 64.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed No | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x633a…7e60backed Yes | 19c | 51.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x398e…3752backed No | 74c | 40.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x264b…28fabacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490c…3093backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7a…e07fbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.