World Politics · resolved market
Will the Greens win 4+ seats in Australian Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x657bc446616e78b00c601710950401001ef3919f951b4f5c01efe1133cbea948
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…0058backed No | 59c | 26,925$15,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,039.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9268…6ce0backed Yes | 41c | 26,925$11,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,039.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 7c | 4,556$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.71 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 50c | 3,504$1,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,766.76 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a0…440cbacked No | 72c | 2,788$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.52 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2606…aaddbacked Yes | 38c | 2,196$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 6c | 2,081$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.23 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked No | 54c | 2,041$1,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +264.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 59c | 1,924$1,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130.56 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 56c | 1,631$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.28 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb35e…7cc4backed No | 51c | 1,381$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8644…3904backed No | 39c | 1,110$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.1 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Yes | 46c | 900.01$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +75%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed No | 57c | 630.48$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.11 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe306…d100backed Yes | 42c | 628.9$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.56 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 53c | 565.79$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.92 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 41c | 504.35$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.78 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 43c | 484.04$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.14 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 52c | 402.97$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.98 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 57c | 399.99$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a3…e236backed Yes | 6c | 301.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 280$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.56 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 19c | 274.07$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.21 | 129 | 20.9%27 W · 102 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed Yes | 41c | 254.89$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.23 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb084…92dcbacked Yes | 43c | 250$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 54c | 232$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.2 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94cd…0eeebacked No | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +236.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 52c | 199.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…84ddbacked Yes | 51c | 195.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 53c | 175.23$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.67 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e9…6094backed No | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f18cbacked No | 49c | 161.17$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x276f…6b46backed Yes | 9c | 140$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 138.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed No | 57c | 119.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.92 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…9a64backed No | 49c | 101.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.71 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac61…f5f7backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…0055backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf386…1158backed No | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1e…0cd2backed Yes | 13c | 78.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked Yes | 39c | 74.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 58c | 70.69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a66…359dbacked Yes | 29c | 69.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 50c | 63.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 38c | 61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc3…846cbacked No | 53c | 54.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49a5…bdf9backed Yes | 44c | 45.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Yes | 39c | 43.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5858…7b42backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a0…5d96backed Yes | 45c | 38.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2db7…e4d6backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e83…539ebacked Yes | 51c | 33.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0d…8d31backed Yes | 58c | 30.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x264b…28fabacked No | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4c…9738backed Yes | 55c | 22.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadd3…263fbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed No | 56c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7e…a160backed No | 58c | 18.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.