AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI acquire Windsurf before August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x310ef4188cc55f6656affff4478236f2f24690f2e5d2c75773df141b72e9197c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $338,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $338,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $338,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33b2…57b9backed Yes | 48c | 41,355$19,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,504.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9017…b286backed No | 52c | 41,355$21,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,504.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…6ac2backed No | 51c | 36,112$18,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,417.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8136…ff77backed Yes | 49c | 36,112$17,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,417.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4957…4cbcbacked No | 49c | 35,231$17,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,263.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeec…c317backed Yes | 51c | 35,231$17,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,263.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…6119backed No | 41c | 31,013$12,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,715.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…c78abacked Yes | 59c | 31,013$18,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,715.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x112d…ba38backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x340f…3cf5backed No | 1c | 9,841$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -57%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f2…d069backed No | 73c | 6,852$4,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,989.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 3,089$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 1c | 2,106$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 82 | 1.2%1 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…6387backed No | 17c | 1,733$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…a332backed No | 1c | 1,334$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71fe…2ca7backed Yes | 25c | 1,310$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +303.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 24c | 1,100$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.72 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e49…0b46backed Yes | 25c | 1,016$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +100%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 50c | 668$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 74c | 593.86$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.1 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 19c | 484.64$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.4 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8389…a317backed Yes | 45c | 460$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 343.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…41b5backed No | 61c | 331.53$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d6…0489backed Yes | 36c | 329.37$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x025a…ee1cbacked No | 60c | 327.08$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked Yes | 31c | 324.31$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.25 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 53c | 302.43$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.59 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa28b…4081backed No | 9c | 277.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 49c | 271.08$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.73 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 243.24$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.08 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes | 60c | 215.56$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.2 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 66c | 183.32$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.92 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96cf…efc8backed No | 57c | 175.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1b…62c1backed Yes | 57c | 165$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.06 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 61cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 25c | 160.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.01 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x796d…c501backed Yes | 40c | 157.67$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe53a…19a4backed Yes | 50c | 134$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked No | 31c | 129.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -66%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8feb…8908backed Yes | 42c | 120$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e25…0667backed Yes | 55c | 110$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 42c | 108.86$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…dcf4backed Yes | 25c | 99.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed Yes | 51c | 93.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +6.1wins | +0.36per pick | 41cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x23cf…3349backed Yes | 67c | 90.36$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c0…511ebacked No | 55c | 89.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Yes | 61c | 84$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…d2e8backed Yes | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca2…134fbacked No | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 63c | 79.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf386…1158backed Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4f…526fbacked Yes | 25c | 71.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.82 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 55c | 68.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed Yes | 53c | 66.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…b5f7backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…bfcdbacked No | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd691…4521backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafa2…91a5backed No | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21b4…6a27backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ece…3893backed Yes | 68c | 44.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 42c | 44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 58c | 44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ea…ea43backed Yes | 49c | 42.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 56c | 40.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 51c | 40.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05e2…5aa2backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7218…c908backed No | 42c | 34.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3cf…4de3backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f36…f6e8backed Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55f5…0a7cbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c9…1b6bbacked Yes | 69c | 20.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0e…fb3abacked Yes | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…6705backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed1…1240backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…8cffbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 78c | 16.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.