TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2ed1…1240

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
100
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Premier League, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Premier League at 54 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT2774.1%20 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$14.7
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.85
Will Manchester City finish in the top 4 of the EPL?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.6
Will Manchester City win the 2024-25 FA Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$6.6
Will Liverpool win on 2025-04-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$5.75
Will Liverpool win on 2025-04-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2025, EDT+37%+$6.75
Will Leicester win on 2025-03-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT+27.7%+$6.5
Will Tottenham win on 2025-03-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$7.12
Will Arsenal vs. Chelsea end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$7.5
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-03-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.8
Will Everton win on 2025-03-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.3
Will Ipswich win on 2025-03-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$4.8
Will Manchester United win on 2025-03-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT+25%+$4
Will Chelsea win on 2025-03-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT+27.7%+$6.5
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-03-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT+77.5%+$13.1
Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST+27.7%+$6.5
Will Manchester City win on 2025-03-08?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST+96.1%+$9.8
Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2025, EST+49.3%+$8.25
Will Manchester United win on 2025-02-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2025, EST+53.8%+$8.75
Will Chelsea win on 2025-02-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2025, EST+25%+$4
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-02-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2025, EST-100%-$12.4
Will Everton win on 2025-02-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2025, EST+58.7%+$7.4
Will Tottenham vs. Manchester United end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST+33.3%+$5
Will Fulham win on 2025-02-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2025, EST+37%+$5.92
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT1752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+6.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+566.7%+$85
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.15
UEFA Nations League Round of 8: Croatia vs. Francebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT+59.1%+$13.85
UEFA Nations League Round of 8: Netherlands vs. Spainbacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT+33.9%+$7.6
UEFA Nations League Round of 8: Denmark vs. Portugalbacked Portugal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT+47.3%+$11.08
UEFA Nations League Round of 8: Italy vs. Germanybacked Italy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.8
Will Real Madrid or Atlético de Madrid advance in the UCL Round of 16?backed Atlético Madrid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.4
Will PSV Eindhoven or Arsenal advance in the UCL Round of 16?backed Arsenal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$4.2
Will Club Brugge or Aston Villa advance in the UCL Round of 16?backed Aston Villa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$6
Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16?backed Bayern Munich · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$8.4
Will Juventus advance to the Round of 16 in the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST-100%-$69.77
Will Real Madrid advance to the Round of 16 in the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST+25%+$20
Will Benfica advance to the Round of 16 in the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST+42.1%+$11.11
Will Atalanta advance to the Round of 16 in the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST-100%-$27.6
Will AC Milan advance to the Round of 16 in the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST-100%-$19.2
All 17 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Solana all time high before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+48.8%+$8.2
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+49.1%+$32.95
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+192.8%+$88.9
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+65.7%+$29.75
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17.3
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$44.9
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+326.5%+$38.28
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.61
Ethereum all time high before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.19
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.28
Bitcoin all time high before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.7
All 11 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$247Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$246.51
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$154.13
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$1,537Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,537.14
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,541Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+29.8%+$459.58
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$757Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+32.8%+$248.02
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+170.3%+$18.9
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$6.6
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$7.2
All 8 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-36.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+21.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick47cpaid-78.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-62.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-56.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+116.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+155.1%+$30.4
Will Gold hit $3,000 before March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+78.6%+$46.2
All 2 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Serie A league?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.8
Will Napoli win the Serie A?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT+108.5%+$28.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Negative GDP growth in Q3 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$16
Negative GDP growth in Q2 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+139.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+139.2%+$14.55
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kanye launch a coin in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+37.4%+$6.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will OpenAI acquire Windsurf before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.