Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold hit $3,000 before March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6f39840102107490b6bc102083473600431df12376e21aa22a4724e15a3997b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $223,480
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $230,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $223,480 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 454 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60fd…1d52backed No | 45c | 33,200$14,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,356.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…3cc9backed Yes | 70c | 22,018$15,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,463.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed Yes | 31c | 10,695$3,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,313.89 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Yes | 55c | 9,998$5,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,549.15 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked No | 73c | 7,170$5,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,901.46 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -81%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Yes | 65c | 6,576$4,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,268.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed No | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +113.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 11c | 4,668$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…d8aebacked Yes | 20c | 4,621$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 46c | 4,495$2,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,425.99 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d5…5819backed No | 53c | 4,344$2,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,054.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked No | 64c | 4,182$2,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,489.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,098$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 50c | 2,725$1,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,359.24 | 952 | 40.1%382 W · 570 L | -71.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6178…f9a9backed No | 79c | 2,532$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8244…3eb6backed Yes | 4c | 2,526$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 26c | 2,468$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.85 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked No | 32c | 2,382$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,626.7 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 57c | 2,329$1,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,330.56 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd02…60e0backed No | 45c | 2,018$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,119.04 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14a9…f391backed No | 49c | 2,004$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66f…8e0cbacked No | 52c | 1,914$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.89 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe306…d100backed Yes | 75c | 1,868$1,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,403.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 26c | 1,764$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,305.01 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x70f5…61cabacked No | 73c | 1,373$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf645…b8c2backed No | 38c | 1,335$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +161.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3d…e107backed Yes | 2c | 1,328$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa10d…acc6backed No | 46c | 1,295$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +156.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd3…6346backed Yes | 61c | 1,293$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 21c | 1,279$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +143.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…9224backed Yes | 65c | 1,200$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…119fbacked Yes | 71c | 1,133$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 48c | 1,051$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.64 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x99ec…f99ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,048$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes | 1c | 1,007$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8491…f31fbacked Yes | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…bbadbacked Yes | 54c | 999.99$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 45c | 935.87$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.82 | 311 | 39.5%123 W · 188 L | -17.6wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc28…3ed4backed No | 55c | 905.61$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8f…d077backed No | 55c | 779.96$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…ee4bbacked Yes | 55c | 777$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…8b82backed Yes | 56c | 769.13$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 64c | 750$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ae…f6d1backed Yes | 60c | 747.79$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36d6…eec0backed Yes | 62c | 727.96$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed No | 66c | 713.71$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…51b7backed No | 40c | 654.84$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +153.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…6387backed No | 50c | 600.4$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 44c | 592.92$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be6…a8bcbacked No | 79c | 578.72$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb37…fbacbacked No | 74c | 574.01$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…17d1backed Yes | 9c | 573.78$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd292…b066backed No | 63c | 550.98$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.39 | 24 | 95.8%23 W · 1 L | +5.7wins | +0.24per pick | 72cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x80a3…d285backed Yes | 42c | 536.58$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f0…be32backed No | 73c | 500.35$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…8ebbbacked Yes | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes | 43c | 498.86$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…8d2fbacked No | 47c | 483.61$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…9f94backed No | 37c | 470.96$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +167%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 45c | 455.18$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb6…9b85backed No | 40c | 446.35$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +148%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e13…a7a6backed No | 46c | 436.94$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +118.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc7…e58cbacked Yes | 30c | 430$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ca…5fb5backed No | 70c | 430$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 2c | 408.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe466…7083backed No | 52c | 400.81$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce8…448abacked No | 56c | 400$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde3b…6e42backed No | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…be62backed Yes | 30c | 400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb233…ccafbacked No | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0513…19c9backed Yes | 44c | 400$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 65c | 389.24$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94f0…577cbacked No | 67c | 371.17$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a1…5f52backed No | 63c | 370.6$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa80e…dfefbacked Yes | 55c | 370$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa97b…16b4backed Yes | 72c | 365.88$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…2061backed No | 28c | 360.68$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6535…eef6backed No | 70c | 350$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…e75fbacked Yes | 30c | 350$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed No | 39c | 332.37$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.75 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5515…15b0backed No | 70c | 320$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9935…9162backed Yes | 30c | 320$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf15…ccd0backed Yes | 76c | 315.11$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46a5…d8efbacked Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…3e59backed Yes | 61c | 300$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ba…8729backed Yes | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…591abacked Yes | 9c | 300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…54a5backed No | 67c | 300$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb63…58e6backed No | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…d1a1backed No | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 289.9$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.75 | 1,060 | 35%371 W · 689 L | -92.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c6…42fcbacked Yes | 8c | 283.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4351…645dbacked Yes | 45c | 280$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7507…fd58backed No | 55c | 280$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x954c…6e6bbacked No | 55c | 274$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4503…7aaabacked No | 64c | 272.88$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6257…cd5dbacked No | 53c | 272.06$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 61c | 271$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.03 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xab46…ab59backed Yes | 45c | 270$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…6788backed Yes | 57c | 264.91$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.