Will Benfica advance to the Round of 16 in the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0ea682b15f6144336da7995c3b2c343f363de2912655710fc25db42fe193179

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 18, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $4,808
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $5,226

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,808 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Champions League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x53ec…df91backed Yes	50c	1,040$520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$520.39	59	39%23 W · 36 L	+3.8wins	+0.06per pick	33cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed No	50c	1,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	196	45.4%89 W · 107 L	-6.0wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed No	45c	433.39$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.38	74	35.1%26 W · 48 L	-4.2wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No	50c	430$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.4	173	22%38 W · 135 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4aef…9337backed Yes	52c	402.66$211 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$191.89	247	42.5%105 W · 142 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00e2…d56abacked No	16c	296.92$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.34	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-2.3wins	-0.10per pick	51cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No	5c	283.45$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.82	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked No	42c	230.93$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.27	119	16.8%20 W · 99 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3bb8…7471backed No	35c	220$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.87	93	41.9%39 W · 54 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Yes	34c	202.24$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$133.55	191	50.3%96 W · 95 L	+9.1wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+30%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6f0…ed38backed Yes	57c	175.44$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.44	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.43per pick	57cpaid	+75.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9320…95ddbacked Yes	70c	135$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.5	43	51.2%22 W · 21 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf240…03c2backed Yes	45c	130.75$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.91	48	35.4%17 W · 31 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92be…d717backed No	22c	113.64$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No	66c	100$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	43	37.2%16 W · 27 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5dc…0bc1backed Yes	57c	100$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xde26…0972backed Yes	59c	80$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.2	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	63cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x22d4…1e8dbacked Yes	45c	71.49$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.32	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.55per pick	45cpaid	+122.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x354a…eca7backed Yes	57c	70.18$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.18	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed Yes	39c	65$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.65	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-1.6wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4f0…3213backed Yes	58c	51.8$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.8	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-1.8wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x93b4…cbfdbacked No	66c	50$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-2.2wins	-0.14per pick	52cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	66c	45$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.7	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf767…b532backed No	55c	40$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ed1…1240backed Yes	70c	37.51$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.11	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xa93e…1e3fbacked Yes	62c	35.56$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.51	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.38per pick	62cpaid	+61.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Yes	70c	33.33$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	173	48%83 W · 90 L	+6.9wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x397a…4d70backed Yes	55c	30$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.5	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	63cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No	52c	21.15$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	28cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc935…4c02backed Yes	56c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.8	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.44per pick	56cpaid	+78.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d4f…99f0backed No	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Benfica advance to the Round of 16 in the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event