Will Paris Saint-Germain advance to the Round of 16 in the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0a7d6ad3e0db1726f5876b00ab3aa8b40630e1c0973aa4104f2b7f175931924

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 19, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $349,076
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $276,956

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $349,076 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Champions League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9889…3e00backed No	0c	67,000$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53d2…0c3fbacked No	11c	42,149$4,651 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,650.8	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4aef…9337backed No	2c	12,869$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.22	247	42.5%105 W · 142 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	31	29%9 W · 22 L	+3.1wins	+0.10per pick	19cpaid	-27%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d5f…82cfbacked No	0c	2,752$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.01	31	25.8%8 W · 23 L	+3.9wins	+0.13per pick	13cpaid	+135.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb431…0c91backed No	3c	2,607$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.21	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-59.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71cd…912dbacked No	6c	2,374$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.94	132	32.6%43 W · 89 L	+12.1wins	+0.09per pick	23cpaid	+172.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked No	11c	2,281$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.43	115	48.7%56 W · 59 L	-4.7wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed No	7c	2,170$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.1	173	48%83 W · 90 L	+6.9wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked No	46c	2,043$940 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$939.59	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-1.8wins	-0.11per pick	40cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No	2c	2,031$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.21	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed No	49c	1,104$541 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$540.64	74	35.1%26 W · 48 L	-4.2wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	291	38.1%111 W · 180 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed No	11c	1,000$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	196	45.4%89 W · 107 L	-6.0wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed No	12c	883$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.27	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.09per pick	45cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ed0…e6b2backed No	6c	827.14$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.4	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.2wins	+0.30per pick	45cpaid	+37.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed No	7c	714$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.98	20	5%1 W · 19 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No	8c	593.95$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.77	40	62.5%25 W · 15 L	+6.0wins	+0.15per pick	48cpaid	+32.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc64e…3cdbbacked No	9c	589.99$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.6	40	32.5%13 W · 27 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-48%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No	7c	532.59$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.28	138	43.5%60 W · 78 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Yes	51c	377$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184.73	189	50.3%95 W · 94 L	+8.8wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+29.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed No	24c	340.27$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.19	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-1.6wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9977…3020backed No	15c	210$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.5	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+3.3wins	+0.23per pick	41cpaid	+30.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf240…03c2backed No	50c	181.59$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.72	48	35.4%17 W · 31 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed No	12c	169.23$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	36	47.2%17 W · 19 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Yes	54c	139.14$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64	170	48.2%82 W · 88 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked No	46c	139.14$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	+202.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed No	10c	137$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.33	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.24per pick	10cpaid	+364%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…a0c9backed Yes	53c	100$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.47per pick	53cpaid	+88.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x189e…0434backed Yes	54c	92.59$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.59	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No	20c	90$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.82	32	25%8 W · 24 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+41.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae5b…ab1bbacked Yes	54c	81.48$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.48	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.46per pick	54cpaid	+85.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc08…6bd3backed No	20c	70$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b61…78e8backed Yes	55c	50$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.5	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.3wins	+0.63per pick	38cpaid	+240.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes	51c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.5	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-2.2wins	-0.14per pick	52cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	67c	25.5$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.43	43	37.2%16 W · 27 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd28…374abacked Yes	60c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-3.5wins	-0.14per pick	54cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Paris Saint-Germain advance to the Round of 16 in the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event