Will Stade Brestois advance to the Round of 16 in the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3193244ed98a0c5fd3af7123bd3bd2710022a152cbb6af148ad49ac102baee9f

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 19, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $198,197
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $183,889

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $198,197 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Champions League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9889…3e00backed Yes	0c	69,100$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.4	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	31	29%9 W · 22 L	+3.1wins	+0.10per pick	19cpaid	-27%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d55…29afbacked Yes	1c	5,092$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.43	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked Yes	1c	3,787$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.89	49	24.5%12 W · 37 L	+4.3wins	+0.09per pick	16cpaid	+157.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe077…8ee3backed Yes	3c	2,500$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb431…0c91backed Yes	5c	2,390$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.19	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-59.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d28…fe42backed Yes	2c	2,081$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.51	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes	1c	1,924$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.67	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x11e0…13acbacked Yes	2c	1,561$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.03	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x71cd…912dbacked Yes	8c	1,518$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.45	132	32.6%43 W · 89 L	+12.1wins	+0.09per pick	23cpaid	+172.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes	35c	1,500$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520.18	74	35.1%26 W · 48 L	-4.2wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes	9c	1,500$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	115	48.7%56 W · 59 L	-4.7wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b7b…dc97backed Yes	2c	1,481$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.01	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked No	65c	1,021$663 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$358.1	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-1.8wins	-0.11per pick	40cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed No	66c	409.12$271 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.19	191	50.3%96 W · 95 L	+9.1wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+30%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes	24c	250$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	27	37%10 W · 17 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	+28.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba0c…a550backed No	63c	234.1$148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.18	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+1.0wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+103.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked No	65c	158.82$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.59	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	+202.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b21…41fabacked No	80c	131.57$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.32	129	56.6%73 W · 56 L	+8.4wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	31c	126$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.95	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7576…f961backed No	66c	120$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.8	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	65cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes	12c	110.01$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.24per pick	10cpaid	+364%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93b4…cbfdbacked No	64c	100$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.33	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-2.2wins	-0.14per pick	52cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6884…517cbacked Yes	24c	89.8$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.73	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6238…57c8backed Yes	34c	73.53$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-1.9wins	-0.15per pick	40cpaid	-51.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes	25c	54.37$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	28cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	38c	50.7$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.14	43	37.2%16 W · 27 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No	66c	50$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	66cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No	64c	20.1$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.24	81	60.5%49 W · 32 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Stade Brestois advance to the Round of 16 in the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event