Will AS Monaco advance to the Round of 16 in the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb0383497173ffd9eb85de2953af04400227705ac4c31866b979a9852a83553c

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 18, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $10,747
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $10,657

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,747 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Champions League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x53d2…0c3fbacked No	52c	3,050$1,580 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,470	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes	48c	2,994$1,437 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,437	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes	19c	2,579$494 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$494.29	43	32.6%14 W · 29 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	+106.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No	75c	2,233$1,667 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$565.84	40	62.5%25 W · 15 L	+6.0wins	+0.15per pick	48cpaid	+32.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes	80c	1,234$987 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$987.06	33	24.2%8 W · 25 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	31cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked No	20c	970.94$194 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$776.74	49	24.5%12 W · 37 L	+4.3wins	+0.09per pick	16cpaid	+157.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes	46c	512.72$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.32	74	35.1%26 W · 48 L	-4.2wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed No	43c	211.99$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120.33	170	48.2%82 W · 88 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes	16c	139.12$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.9	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0982…92c6backed Yes	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.27per pick	23cpaid	+194.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	57c	99.99$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.99	43	37.2%16 W · 27 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3bb8…7471backed Yes	76c	77$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.5	93	41.9%39 W · 54 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f0…3213backed No	57c	70.6$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.6	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-1.8wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e51…1d98backed Yes	57c	65.34$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.38per pick	38cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	57c	62$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.34	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed Yes	60c	50$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-1.6wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes	56c	50$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-2.2wins	-0.14per pick	52cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1247…9ce9backed No	56c	40$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.6	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-2.1wins	-0.26per pick	63cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Yes	44c	40$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	46	19.6%9 W · 37 L	-9.9wins	-0.21per pick	41cpaid	-60%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0xc64e…3cdbbacked Yes	80c	40$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	40	32.5%13 W · 27 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-48%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2ee…d511backed Yes	47c	31.91$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	25	36%9 W · 16 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf25…224cbacked No	54c	26.52$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.2	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b21…41fabacked No	50c	24.08$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12	129	56.6%73 W · 56 L	+8.4wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked No	67c	15$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.94	93	43%40 W · 53 L	+5.8wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will AS Monaco advance to the Round of 16 in the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event