Will Atalanta advance to the Round of 16 in the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x694c15a0ed56d5c865760b324f0a3d17f17092fcb56ac6668ca80e0b2bff22f8

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 18, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $14,256
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $14,305

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,256 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Champions League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4aef…9337backed No	25c	2,026$502 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,523.93	247	42.5%105 W · 142 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed No	32c	1,725$548 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,176.61	74	35.1%26 W · 48 L	-4.2wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No	36c	1,668$603 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,064.77	40	62.5%25 W · 15 L	+6.0wins	+0.15per pick	48cpaid	+32.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc441…92eabacked Yes	69c	1,645$1,137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,137.48	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	34cpaid	-78.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d80…5fd8backed Yes	77c	1,523$1,173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,172.89	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	57cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed No	43c	1,256$546 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$710.9	210	37.1%78 W · 132 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No	33c	1,088$360 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$727.6	138	43.5%60 W · 78 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No	24c	1,006$242 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$763.99	291	38.1%111 W · 180 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb295…4ee4backed Yes	76c	931.56$708 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$707.99	37	48.6%18 W · 19 L	+2.3wins	+0.06per pick	42cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7620…d9f0backed Yes	76c	923.28$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700.29	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.76per pick	76cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00e2…d56abacked No	41c	650.27$266 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$384.18	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-2.3wins	-0.10per pick	51cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc2e…2358backed No	29c	439$129 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$310.05	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	+66.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed Yes	70c	393.28$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.81	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-1.6wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Yes	75c	387.24$289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288.95	60	60%36 W · 24 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	63cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x089e…6e0ebacked Yes	67c	379.31$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255.03	28	60.7%17 W · 11 L	+2.9wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+25.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes	65c	307.02$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	186	50.5%94 W · 92 L	-14.4wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-12%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed Yes	12c	261$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.85	62	38.7%24 W · 38 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes	57c	250$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.5	44	43.2%19 W · 25 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes	69c	250$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.5	27	37%10 W · 17 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	+28.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53d2…0c3fbacked No	29c	230.02$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$164.23	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2e7…35b1backed Yes	60c	160$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51b1…bce2backed Yes	68c	150.01$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.61	55	18.2%10 W · 45 L	-10.3wins	-0.19per pick	37cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No	28c	140$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101	43	37.2%16 W · 27 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes	74c	139.88$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.51	93	43%40 W · 53 L	+5.8wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xde26…0972backed Yes	58c	135$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.96	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	63cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd691…bf03backed Yes	62c	134.72$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.53	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.1wins	-0.42per pick	42cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6245…d3c0backed Yes	69c	120$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.6	38	28.9%11 W · 27 L	-7.9wins	-0.21per pick	50cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed No	25c	100$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe528…6385backed Yes	75c	100$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.5wins	-0.73per pick	73cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x10db…5365backed Yes	57c	95.79$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.6	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.3wins	-0.65per pick	65cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ba1…ae03backed Yes	70c	71.43$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.70per pick	70cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc85a…b4c2backed Yes	56c	64.07$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.88	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f0…3213backed Yes	76c	62.08$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.18	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-1.8wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc64e…3cdbbacked Yes	57c	55.8$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.81	40	32.5%13 W · 27 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-48%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x49c4…bf77backed Yes	76c	52.63$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	74	63.5%47 W · 27 L	+4.8wins	+0.06per pick	57cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc0a4…72adbacked Yes	74c	50$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	45	51.1%23 W · 22 L	-2.6wins	-0.06per pick	57cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fc0…5cdbbacked No	45c	50$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.5	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	37cpaid	-52.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93b4…cbfdbacked No	30c	50$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-2.2wins	-0.14per pick	52cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e46…37d3backed Yes	77c	48.05$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.77per pick	77cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb5b…0037backed Yes	76c	46.05$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	62cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ed1…1240backed Yes	61c	45.06$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.6	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes	57c	43.86$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	244	55.7%136 W · 108 L	-7.9wins	-0.03per pick	59cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	69c	40$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.6	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	66cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x83c5…e193backed Yes	63c	40$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	90	40%36 W · 54 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebfd…dfd0backed Yes	56c	35.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.4wins	-0.34per pick	59cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6daa…25d2backed Yes	56c	35.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9968…edd1backed Yes	57c	35.61$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.3	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.57per pick	57cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7188…f812backed Yes	75c	30$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	56cpaid	-17%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3fe…978fbacked Yes	78c	20$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	21	76.2%16 W · 5 L	+1.7wins	+0.08per pick	68cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x397a…4d70backed No	78c	19.11$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.11	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	63cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec2c…bdbabacked Yes	80c	13.74$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.99	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Atalanta advance to the Round of 16 in the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event