Will AC Milan advance to the Round of 16 in the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbc8918c194456a3b0bebf50a10c92d09bc8226307fb80ab22d9a5f81307ab7b

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 18, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $14,057
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $13,425

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,057 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Champions League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4e25…d7a7backed No	36c	2,149$766 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,382.43	40	62.5%25 W · 15 L	+6.0wins	+0.15per pick	48cpaid	+32.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x00e2…d56abacked No	38c	2,111$795 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,315.9	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-2.3wins	-0.10per pick	51cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No	33c	1,496$494 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,002.28	291	38.1%111 W · 180 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4aef…9337backed Yes	67c	1,332$887 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$887.36	247	42.5%105 W · 142 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b21…41fabacked No	39c	1,100$426 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$674	129	56.6%73 W · 56 L	+8.4wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed No	39c	1,000$386 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$613.8	196	45.4%89 W · 107 L	-6.0wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb304…3ea2backed Yes	69c	824.94$566 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$566.42	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+733.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Yes	68c	745.46$506 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$505.98	164	47.6%78 W · 86 L	-5.3wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed No	34c	728.76$247 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$481.98	74	35.1%26 W · 48 L	-4.2wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe880…de2dbacked Yes	60c	719.22$434 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$433.96	77	42.9%33 W · 44 L	-6.7wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x224b…f6b8backed No	33c	604.4$199 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$404.95	79	46.8%37 W · 42 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x028f…c9cbbacked Yes	67c	604.4$405 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$404.95	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-2.2wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No	34c	448.98$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$295.7	138	43.5%60 W · 78 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x722c…515fbacked Yes	65c	331.34$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.14	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	+194.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed Yes	55c	300$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165	55	47.3%26 W · 29 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb43c…d43bbacked Yes	62c	280.26$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.76	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+3.1wins	+0.22per pick	35cpaid	+120.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb29b…9e76backed No	9c	239$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$217.49	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+1.6wins	+0.11per pick	17cpaid	+64.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4395…5b90backed No	8c	183.19$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$168.53	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+3.0wins	+0.30per pick	30cpaid	+371.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbb4c…2f6bbacked Yes	58c	172.1$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb3d…2417backed Yes	71c	154.93$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes	69c	144.93$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	186	50.5%94 W · 92 L	-14.4wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-12%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x664b…8509backed No	30c	126.35$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.71	36	41.7%15 W · 21 L	-3.5wins	-0.10per pick	51cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9389…711cbacked No	9c	116.23$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.77	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	15cpaid	+77.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes	62c	113.5$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.37	44	43.2%19 W · 25 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92be…d717backed Yes	70c	108.57$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed Yes	67c	108.18$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.48	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf40…e371backed No	33c	108.18$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.48	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.6wins	+0.80per pick	20cpaid	+820.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbbb4…c164backed Yes	70c	108.04$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.71	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.70per pick	70cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc8c…5f95backed No	32c	95.88$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.2	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.32per pick	18cpaid	+56.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x421b…ac12backed No	30c	95.07$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.55	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-2.6wins	-0.26per pick	46cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No	11c	95$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85	33	24.2%8 W · 25 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	31cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c54…da75backed Yes	76c	88$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.68	14	78.6%11 W · 3 L	+1.3wins	+0.09per pick	69cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes	67c	73.99$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.57	119	16.8%20 W · 99 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x002b…20f1backed Yes	68c	73.53$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.8wins	-0.30per pick	63cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf62d…d3a0backed No	43c	58.37$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.37	52	42.3%22 W · 30 L	-4.3wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf2ee…d511backed Yes	69c	57.96$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.99	25	36%9 W · 16 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9db0…edeebacked No	32c	54.06$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.76	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.68per pick	32cpaid	+212.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd28…374abacked Yes	69c	50$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.5	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-3.5wins	-0.14per pick	54cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc0a4…72adbacked Yes	67c	50$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.5	45	51.1%23 W · 22 L	-2.6wins	-0.06per pick	57cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad9d…9b95backed No	24c	50$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38	65	46.2%30 W · 35 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a3f…b742backed Yes	69c	42.9$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.69per pick	69cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes	60c	41.67$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	244	55.7%136 W · 108 L	-7.9wins	-0.03per pick	59cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3762…31a7backed No	32c	36.06$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.52	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.68per pick	32cpaid	+212.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b4a…7d6abacked Yes	65c	30.77$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.4wins	-0.69per pick	69cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ed1…1240backed Yes	67c	28.62$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x7188…f812backed Yes	67c	25$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.75	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	56cpaid	-17%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0710…42a2backed Yes	69c	20$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	-1.9wins	-0.11per pick	66cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will AC Milan advance to the Round of 16 in the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event