Champions League · resolved market
Will PSV Eindhoven or Arsenal advance in the UCL Round of 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6802416536f6c24e56eb531656eb91b6650f2c0fd4f84b7265c33f1a0ac0b52d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arsenalof PSV, Arsenal
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $271,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $194,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $271,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked PSV | 0c | 108,459$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.46 | 291 | 38.1%111 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9a…ff79backed PSV | 0c | 32,825$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked PSV | 1c | 28,333$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.33 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…0cb9backed PSV | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2499…40dfbacked PSV | 0c | 13,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2289…1157backed PSV | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa008…9fd8backed PSV | 0c | 10,300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9a…2911backed Arsenal | 80c | 2,501$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked PSV | 18c | 776.76$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.82 | 176 | 58.5%103 W · 73 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed PSV | 23c | 652.17$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d21…28ddbacked Arsenal | 80c | 625$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed PSV | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f0…3213backed Arsenal | 80c | 376.59$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.59 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed Arsenal | 79c | 336$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.64 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43c3…8371backed PSV | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed PSV | 18c | 216.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x002c…cbc2backed Arsenal | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Arsenal | 79c | 191.98$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbe…d7e1backed PSV | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed PSV | 20c | 146.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03cb…4bf9backed PSV | 22c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea3a…f78ebacked PSV | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b3…4369backed PSV | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed PSV | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc53e…da94backed Arsenal | 79c | 71.77$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05bd…300cbacked PSV | 21c | 66.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed PSV | 21c | 60.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f1…c78bbacked Arsenal | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed PSV | 21c | 48.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 187 | 7%13 W · 174 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6917…f6e7backed Arsenal | 79c | 47.51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480c…81f2backed Arsenal | 79c | 45.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Arsenal | 80c | 43.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed1…e492backed Arsenal | 78c | 40.59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a46…2294backed Arsenal | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…010dbacked Arsenal | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed1…1240backed Arsenal | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7188…f812backed Arsenal | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will PSV Eindhoven or Arsenal advance in the UCL Round of 16?this page
- Will Benfica or FC Barcelona advance in the UCL Round of 16?Barcelona won
- Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16?Bayern Munich won
- Will Borussia Dortmund or Lille advance in the UCL Round of 16?Dortmund won
- Will Club Brugge or Aston Villa advance in the UCL Round of 16?Aston Villa won
- Will Feyenoord or Inter Milan advance in the UCL Round of 16?Inter Milan won
- Will Paris Saint-Germain or Liverpool advance in the UCL Round of 16?PSG won
- Will Real Madrid or Atlético de Madrid advance in the UCL Round of 16?Real Madrid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.