Champions League · resolved market
Will Club Brugge or Aston Villa advance in the UCL Round of 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6d4ba380a5a97764cdb8f14aa5143b218ce670b12cbfa2bf8c1084d0bd53bb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aston Villaof Club Brugge, Aston Villa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Club Brugge | 3c | 32,796$1,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,137.5 | 176 | 58.5%103 W · 73 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Club Brugge | 5c | 12,936$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626 | 247 | 42.5%105 W · 142 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Club Brugge | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe306…d100backed Aston Villa | 71c | 1,282$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.69 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…b7e2backed Club Brugge | 5c | 1,031$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Club Brugge | 4c | 1,019$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Club Brugge | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x686e…af8cbacked Club Brugge | 5c | 982.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Club Brugge | 5c | 934.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 201 | 33.8%68 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Club Brugge | 5c | 760.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa293…2919backed Club Brugge | 30c | 698.3$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.06 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Aston Villa | 80c | 626.39$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.39 | 175 | 60%105 W · 70 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Club Brugge | 4c | 578$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 389 | 35.2%137 W · 252 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Club Brugge | 28c | 498.58$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.6 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -9.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -60%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf634…3c9ebacked Club Brugge | 4c | 476.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Club Brugge | 4c | 475.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Aston Villa | 69c | 303.11$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 291 | 38.1%111 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x838c…5252backed Club Brugge | 4c | 300.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Club Brugge | 29c | 240.54$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.57 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Club Brugge | 28c | 220$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f49…6a8abacked Club Brugge | 17c | 204.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Club Brugge | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f0…3213backed Aston Villa | 71c | 169.01$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.01 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Club Brugge | 27c | 150.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Aston Villa | 71c | 147.89$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Aston Villa | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd416…df81backed Aston Villa | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83e2…ce08backed Aston Villa | 71c | 137.48$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea3a…f78ebacked Club Brugge | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbe…d7e1backed Club Brugge | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa098…f430backed Club Brugge | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…0446backed Aston Villa | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…0749backed Club Brugge | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…226ebacked Aston Villa | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…eb35backed Aston Villa | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 63cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed1…1240backed Aston Villa | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e37…03d2backed Aston Villa | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4f…95f9backed Aston Villa | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8322…fd9bbacked Aston Villa | 72c | 14.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Club Brugge or Aston Villa advance in the UCL Round of 16?this page
- Will Benfica or FC Barcelona advance in the UCL Round of 16?Barcelona won
- Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16?Bayern Munich won
- Will Borussia Dortmund or Lille advance in the UCL Round of 16?Dortmund won
- Will Feyenoord or Inter Milan advance in the UCL Round of 16?Inter Milan won
- Will PSV Eindhoven or Arsenal advance in the UCL Round of 16?Arsenal won
- Will Paris Saint-Germain or Liverpool advance in the UCL Round of 16?PSG won
- Will Real Madrid or Atlético de Madrid advance in the UCL Round of 16?Real Madrid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.